中国天然气供需安全影响因素系统结构分析  

System structure analysis of influencing factors of natural gas supply and demand security in China

作　　者：李乔楚 罗平亚[2] 张鹏[3] LI Qiaochu;LUO Pingya;Zhang Peng(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院,四川成都610500 [2]西南石油大学油气藏地质及开发工程全国重点实验室,四川成都610500 [3]西南石油大学土木工程与测绘学院,四川成都610500

出　　处：《世界石油工业》2025年第2期1-12,共12页World Petroleum Industry

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“能源革命驱动下的天然气产业高质量发展路径研究”(22&ZD105);国家社会科学基金西部项目“‘双碳’目标下我国城市群能源系统碳达峰预测及差异化减排路径研究”(22XGL019);四川省哲学社会科学重点研究基地学术研究专项资助“新质生产力赋能四川天然气产业高质量发展的作用机理及政策建议”(SC24E091);2024年成都市哲学社会科学规划项目“面向深度脱碳的成都新型能源体系构建研究”(2024BS072)。

摘　　要：为了精准把握影响中国天然气供需安全的关键因素,并厘清各影响因素之间复杂的系统结构,采用专家综合能力权重、灰色区间变量、节点度、MICMAC等分析方法,构建改进的DEMATEL/ISM集成模型;基于“驱动-压力-状态-响应”模型对多元影响因素展开识别,并探究各因素间的逻辑演化层次与因果递进关系。研究结果表明:中国天然气供需安全影响因素分布于9阶层级,分属于“自发-联动-独立-依赖”四大集群,形成“深层-中层-表层”逐步递进结构。像天然气储采比、天然气进口集中度、天然气价格指数等表层直接因素处于多级分层结构顶部,对能源供需平衡及产业健康状态有着直接影响。而天然气普及率、供气能力、产业结构等中层间接因素,在多级分层结构里起到承上启下作用,把深层因素的影响间接传递到表层因素。技术创新、能源国际合作、政策引导等深层根本因素则位于多级分层结构底部,不受其他因素影响。结论认为,推动表层因素朝着期望方向发展,可在短期内降低安全风险水平,但实际管理中需调控相关中层及深层因素,间接改变表层因素对整体风险系统的直接作用;只有有效管控深层根本因素,才能从本质上降低系统安全风险。In order to accurately investigate the multiple factors affecting the safety of natural gas supply and demand in China and clarify the complex system structure among these factors,this study proposes an improved integrated DEMATEL/ISM model by combining expert comprehensive ability weights,grey interval variables,node degrees,and cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification(MICMAC)method.On this basis,the"Driving Forces-Pressure-State-Response"(DPSR)model is used to accurately identify the multiple factors affecting the safety of natural gas supply and demand in China.Then,the improved integrated DEMATEL/ISM model is used to investigate the logical evolution level and causal progressive relationship between factors.The results show that the influencing factors of natural gas supply and demand security in China are distributed across 9 levels.They belong to four categories:spontaneous clusters,linkage clusters,independent clusters,and dependent clusters,and form a gradually progressive structure from deep to middle to surface.The surface direct factors such as natural gas reserve-production ratio,natural gas import concentration and natural gas price index are located at the top of multi-level hierarchical structure,which directly affect the balance of energy supply and demand and the health of the industry.It is worth noting that promoting the development of surface direct factors towards the expected direction can reduce the level of system security risks in a short time.However,in the actual management work,it is necessary to indirectly change the direct effect of surface factors on the top event by regulating the related middle and deep factors.The middle indirect factors such as natural gas penetration rate,gas supply capacity,and industrial structure play a bridging role in the multi-level hierarchical structure,and indirectly transfer the influence of deep factors to surface factors.The deep fundamental factors such as technological innovation,international energy cooperation,and policy guid

关 键 词：天然气 供需安全 影响因素 系统结构 改进灰色-DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC集成方法 

分 类 号：TE09[石油与天然气工程]