中国区域创新韧性时空分异及其影响因素研究  

Research of Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Influencing Factors of Regional Innovation Resilience in China

作　　者：邓若冰 赵盈盈 DENG Ruobing;ZHAO Yingying(School of Economics,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023,China;School of Business,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210092,China)

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学经济学院,南京210023 [2]南京大学商学院,南京210092

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2025年第2期28-36,共9页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：2024年度教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(24YJC790028);江苏省社会科学基金项目(21EYC017);中国博士后基金项目(2022M721567)。

摘　　要：基于韧性理论,从抵抗能力、恢复能力、再生能力3个层面构建创新韧性评价指标体系,测度中国2011-2022年30个省级行政区的创新韧性水平,并运用熵值法、Kernel密度估计、Dagum基尼系数及其分解、空间Markov链、空间杜宾模型方法考察中国区域创新韧性水平的时空分异特征及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)中国区域创新韧性在时间维度上呈波动中稳定上升态势,未来仍具有较大的提升空间;(2)空间维度上区域创新韧性水平的差异性显著,呈现“东高西低”非均衡格局,且空间集聚特征明显;(3)创新韧性水平总体差异呈扩大趋势,区域间差异是产生总体差异的主要原因,其中东部西部地区间差异最大;(4)创新韧性水平类型转移具有稳定性,且存在“俱乐部收敛”现象;(5)经济发展水平、数字基础设施、产业结构升级与创新创业活跃度是影响中国区域创新韧性水平的重要因素。Based on resilience theory,an evaluation index system for innovation resilience is constructed from three dimensions:resistance,recovery,and regeneration and is utilized to measure the innovation resilience levels of 30 provincial administrative regions in China from 2011 to 2022.Furthermore,methods such as entropy method,Kernel density estimation,Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition,spatial Markov chain,and spatial Durbin model are employed to investigate the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of China’s regional innovation resilience levels.The results indicate the following:(1)China’s regional innovation resilience exhibits a steady upward trend with fluctuations over time,indicating considerable room for improvement in the future.(2)Significant disparities exist in the level of regional innovation resilience in terms of spatial dimensions,presenting a non-equilibrium pattern of“high in the east and low in the west”with pronounced spatial clustering characteristics.(3)The overall differences in innovation resilience levels are continuously expanding,with inter-regional differences being the primary source of overall variation,especially between the eastern and western regions.(4)The transition of innovation resilience levels demonstrates stability,accompanied by the phenomenon of“club convergence”.(5)Economic development level,digital infrastructure,industrial structure upgrading,and innovation and entrepreneurship activity are significant factors influencing the level of regional innovation resilience in China.

关 键 词：创新韧性 时空分异 基尼系数 空间Markov链 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济]