中国粮食生产的时空格局演进及其影响因素  

Spatial and Temporal Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of China’s Grain Production

作　　者：关付新[1] 刘明珠 GUAN Fuxin;LIU Mingzhu(School of Agricultural and Rural Development,Henan University of Economics and Law,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]河南财经政法大学农业农村发展学院,郑州450046

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2025年第2期149-154,161,共7页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(23YJA790021);河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2022BJJ019)。

摘　　要：从粮食、谷物和口粮3个层次研究粮食生产的时空格局及其影响因素,对实施国家粮食安全战略具有现实意义和政策价值。基于2000-2022年中国内地31个省份粮食、谷物、口粮面板数据,应用生产集中度、重心统计法和空间自相关法分析中国粮食生产的时空格局变化,建立空间计量模型探究影响时空格局演进的因素。结果表明:(1)粮食、谷物集中度由南高北低变为北高南低,口粮生产在中部地区和南方集聚,东北地区口粮生产集中度持续提高;(2)粮食、谷物、口粮生产重心均向东北方向移动,相对方位是粮食靠西,谷物向东北,口粮偏南;(3)粮食、谷物、口粮生产存在显著的空间自相关性和空间溢出效应;(4)粮食、谷物、口粮生产的时空格局受到受灾面积、人均GDP、化肥施用量、播种面积、农业财政支出等多方面因素的影响。提出按照区域粮食生产优势优化粮食生产布局,提升农业科技防灾减灾能力,实行区域差异化的政策措施并制定更精准的粮食、谷物和口粮补贴政策等建议。It was of practical significance and policy value for implementing national food security strategy to study grain production spatial and temporal pattern evolution and influence factors from three levels of grain,cereals and rations.Based on the panel data of grain,cereals and rations in 31 provinces of China from 2000 to 2022,this paper analyzed the evolution of the spatial and temporal pattern of grain production by applying the method of production concentration,gravity center statistics and spatial autocorrelation,and established a spatial econometric model to explore the factors affecting the evolution in the pattern.The results showed that:(1)The concentration of grain and cereals changed from high in south and low in north to high in north and low in south,and the concentration of rations production was concentrated in central and southern regions,and continued to increase in northeast China.(2)The center of gravity of grain,cereals and rations production moved to the northeast,with the relative orientation of grain to the west,cereals to the northeast,and rations to the south.(3)There were significant spatial autocorrelation and spatial spillover effects in the production of grains,cereals and rations.(4)The temporal and spatial pattern of grain,cereal and ration production were influenced by a variety of factors including the affected area,per capita GDP,fertilizer use,planting area,and agricultural fiscal spending.This paper proposes to optimize the distribution of grain production in accordance with regional grain production advantages,enhance the ability of agricultural science and technology to prevent and mitigate disasters,implement regional differential policies and develop more precise subsidy policies for grain,cereals and rations.

关 键 词：粮食生产 时空格局 重心转移 空间自相关 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]