耦合高斯-极值分布与云模型的防洪调度预案风险分析方法  

A method coupled Gaussian-Extreme distribution with Cloud models forrisk analysis of flood control operational scheme

作　　者：康玲[1] 廖武丰 周丽伟[1] 温云亮 KANG Ling;LIAO Wufeng;ZHOU Liwei;WEN Yunliang(School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学土木与水利工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《水利学报》2025年第3期309-316,327,共9页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3002704)。

摘　　要：洪水灾害严重威胁着生命财产安全与经济社会可持续发展,需加快推动具有“预报、预警、预演、预案”功能的智慧水利体系建设。本文针对智慧水利体系中防洪调度预案的风险分析问题,构建了一套集水库、堤防与蓄滞洪区于一体的防洪调度预案风险分析指标体系,并针对防洪风险分布不完全符合高斯分布问题,提出了耦合高斯-极值分布与云模型的防洪调度预案风险分析方法,直观呈现了防洪调度预案风险等级,实现了对防洪调度预案风险定性和定量的系统转化。以长江流域2020年5场编号洪水作为分析的案例,研究结果表明:与高斯分布法相比,本文方法的风险分析结果更贴近实际,更具有合理性;5场编号洪水下的相应防洪调度方案风险值与风险等级分别为0.18(Ⅳ级)、0.30(Ⅲ级)、0.37(Ⅲ级)、0.19(Ⅳ级)、0.40(Ⅲ级)。此外,本文方法能对预案进行实时评估与对比分析,系统分析预案风险态势,为防洪调度预案风险分析提供科学支撑。The flood disaster seriously threatens the safety of life and property and the rapid and stable development.It is necessary to accelerate the construction of an intelligent water conservancy system with the functions of“forecast,early warning,rehearsal and pre-plan”.This paper focuses on the risk analysis of flood control scheduling plan(FCSP)in the intelligent water conservancy system.A set of FCSP risk analysis index systems is constructed,integrating reservoirs,levees and flood storage areas.Targeting flood risk distributions that do not fully conform to a Gaussian distribution,a risk analysis method for FCSPs based on Gaussian-Extreme value distribution and cloud models is proposed.The risk level of the FCSP is presented in an intuitive manner,and a systematic transformation of the qualitative and quantitative risk of the FCSP is achieved.Taking the five numbered floods in the Yangtze River basin in 2020 as cases for analysis,the results indicate that the risk analysis results of the method in this paper are closer to reality and more reasonable than the Gaussian distribution method,and the risk values and risk ratings of the corresponding flood prevention and dispatching plans under the five numbered floods are 0.18(ClassⅣ),0.30(ClassⅢ),0.37(ClassⅢ),0.19(ClassⅣ),and 0.40(ClassⅢ),respectively.These findings suggest that the lower-risk plans were adopted for flood prevention and dispatching,thereby ensuring the safety of the Yangtze River Basin.Furthermore,the method in this paper enables real-time evaluation and comparative analysis of the plans,which allows for a systematic analysis of the risk situation of the plans and provides scientific support for the risk analysis of FCSPs.

关 键 词：智慧水利 防洪调度预案 防洪风险分析 指标体系 高斯-极值分布 云模型 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV87