宏观审慎政策的产出和通货膨胀效应——基于贷款价值比视角的实证分析  

The Output and Inflation Effects of Macroprudential Policies:An Empirical Analysis based on the Loan-to-Value Ratio Perspective

作　　者：徐藜洋 XU Liyang

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学经济学院

出　　处：《当代经济》2025年第5期51-66,共16页Contemporary Economics

基　　金：中国社会科学院大学“研创计划”项目,城市空间结构演变与基本公共服务可及性:人口多中心化的机制与效应分析,编号:2025-KY-035。

摘　　要：2008年次贷危机后,宏观审慎政策受到重视,旨在弥补微观审慎政策的不足,维护金融稳定。探讨中国实施贷款价值比(LTV)政策对产出和通货膨胀的影响具有重要的现实意义。研究发现,LTV政策对产出和通货膨胀具有负面影响,即提高LTV会导致产出和通货膨胀下降。进一步分析显示,紧缩性LTV政策对产出的负面影响大于宽松性政策,而对通货膨胀的影响则在不同阶段表现出非对称性,初期紧缩性政策影响较大,后期宽松性政策影响增强。基于这些发现,建议中国加速金融监管体系改革,优化宏观审慎政策与货币政策的协调,以实现金融稳定与经济增长的平衡。Following the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis,macroprudential policies have been emphasized,aiming to address the limitations of microprudential regulation and maintain financial stability.Investigating the impact of China's Loan-to-Value(LTV)ratio policies on output and inflation holds significant practical relevance.This study reveals that LTV ratio policies exert negative effects on both output and inflation,with a higher LTV ratio leading to declines in these macroeconomic indicators.Further analysis demonstrates asymmetric effects:tightening LTV ratio policies impose greater output suppression than loosening policies,while their inflationary impacts vary across phases.Tightening measures dominate in the short term,whereas loosening policies exhibit stronger influence in the later stage.Based on these findings,it's recommended that China accelerate reforms to its financial regulatory framework,enhance coordination between macroprudential and monetary policies,to strike a balance between financial stability and economic growth.

关 键 词：宏观审慎政策 贷款价值比 产出效应 通货膨胀效应 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学] F202