三北防护林工程综合效益及其时空演变  

Comprehensive effects and spatial-temporal evolution of the Three-North Shelterbelt Project

作　　者：刘欣[1] 马国勇[1] 佟璐 LIU Xin;MA Guoyong;TONG Lu(College of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040;Heilongjiang Academy of Sciences,Harbin 150090)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150040 [2]黑龙江省科学院,哈尔滨150090

出　　处：《林业经济》2024年第10期71-88,共18页Forestry Economics

基　　金：黑龙江省自然科学基金“东北国有林区森林生态系统服务价值评估及价值实现”(LH2023G003);国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“重点国有林区城镇化对城乡收入差距的影响研究”(ZGJSKJJ250600001);黑龙江省发改委重大招标课题“十五五”规划专项研究“黑龙江省‘十五五’人口发展趋势对经济社会发展影响及对策研究”(HLJGH2408)。

摘　　要：全面评价三北防护林工程的综合效益,是衡量工程成效、指导后续修复与建设、促进区域可持续发展及全球生态治理合作的重要标尺。文章采用改进的CRITIC赋权法、Dagum基尼系数分解法、Kernel密度估计方法和障碍因子诊断模型,测算了1978—2020年三北防护林工程第一期至第五期的“生态—经济—社会”综合效益,进而全面揭示其时空演进特征。研究发现:(1)样本考察期内,全区及各区域“生态—经济—社会”综合效益均呈上升趋势,但各区域及省域间存在不平衡,华北和东北地区的综合效益及其增长率均高于其他地区;(2)工程综合效益总体差异呈现下降态势,区域内差异贡献率变化比较平稳,区域间差异有所下降,超变密度贡献率有所上升;(3)工程综合效益全区呈绝对差异扩大趋势,需要注重区域协调均衡发展;(4)三北防护林工程“生态—经济—社会”综合效益主要受林业生产总值、人均地区生产总值、农村常住居民人均消费性支出和农村常住居民人均可支配收入4个因素制约,三大发展维度对三北防护林工程全区经济—社会—生态协同发展的障碍度具有明显差异,其中社会发展的阻碍程度呈上升趋势。文章提供了基于可持续发展理论和循环经济理论的三北防护林工程综合效益研究新思路,有助于推动我国生态工程建设,实现三北地区人与自然和谐共生的美好愿景。文章提出坚持树立系统观念,加强与国家重大战略匹配研究;加强政策引导和科技创新,推动生态工程全域高质量发展;充分考虑区域异质性问题,精准施策,靶向发力。Comprehensively evaluating the comprehensive effects of the Three-North Shelterbelt Project is an important yardstick for measuring the effectiveness of the project,guiding follow-up restoration and construction,and promoting regional sustainable development and global cooperation in ecological governance.This study adopted the CRITIC assignment method,Dagum's Gini coefficient decomposition method and Kernel density estimation method to measure the comprehensive"ecological-economic-social"effects of the first to the fifth phases of the Three-North Shelterbelt Project from 1978 to 2020,and then comprehensively revealed its spatial-temporal evolution characteristics.The results showed that:(1)During the sample period,the comprehensive"ecological-economic-social"effects of the whole region and the three regions showed a rising trend,but there were differences among regions and provinces.The comprehensive effects and their growth rates in North China and Northeast China were both higher than those in other regions.(2)The overall difference of the comprehensive effect of the project showed an decreasing trend.The contribution rates of the regional differences were relatively stable,the regional differences were decreasing,and the contribution rate of hypervariable density was increasing.(3)The absolute difference of the comprehensive effects of the project showed an expanding trend,and it was necessary to focus on regionally coordinated and balanced development.(4)The comprehensive"ecological-economic-social"benefits of the project were mainly constrained by four factors:gross forestry product,per capita gross regional product,per capita consumer spending of permanent rural residents and per capita disposable income of permanent rural residents.There were significant differences in the obstacles to the cooperative development in the three dimensions of ecological,economic,and social development,among which social development had upward trend.The study provided a new idea of research on the comprehensive benefits of th

关 键 词：三北防护林工程 “生态—经济—社会”综合效益 区域差异 分布动态演进 

分 类 号：F326.27[经济管理—产业经济]