考虑政策传导与减排成本的中国制造业关键碳减排行业集辨识研究  

Identifying key carbon reduction sectors in China’s manufacturing industry:a study integrating policy transmission and emission abatement costs

作　　者：王文平[1,2] 许丽鹏 朱嘉敏 WANG Wen-ping;XU Li-peng;ZHU Jia-min

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,江苏南京211189 [2]东南大学国家发展与政策研究院,江苏南京211189

出　　处：《东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2025年第2期50-59,147,共11页Journal of Southeast University(Philosophy and Social Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973023,42277493)成果之一。

摘　　要：制造业既是国民经济的基础,也是实现双碳目标的关键。基于行业间碳流动复杂的关联关系,制造业碳减排应在考虑行业政策传导性的基础上,综合行业潜在碳减排成本与碳排放效率损失,实现制造业全行业碳减排。首先,构建碳转移网络,并基于网络可控性理论,辨识具有行业政策传导调控功能的调控行业集;其次,基于SBM模型测算行业潜在碳减排成本,辨识潜在碳减排成本最小的关键调控行业集;最后,解析行业碳排放效率损失来源,提出不同制造业差异化减排策略。研究结果表明:通过政策传导对全行业碳排放有效调控的最小调控行业集的入度普遍较低,表明制造业关键碳减排行业的高碳上游行业较少。在关键碳减排行业集中,食品与烟草制品业等行业碳生产率损失主要来自低规模效率;纯技术效率偏低是纺织业等行业效率损失的主要原因。As the cornerstone of the national economy,the manufacturing sector plays a pivotal role in achieving China’s dual-carbon targets(carbon peaking and neutrality).However,the interdependencies of carbon flows across industries necessitate a holistic approach to emission reduction that accounts for policy transmission effects,potential abatement costs,and carbon efficiency losses at the sectoral level.This study proposes a three-stage framework:Firstly,constructing a carbon flow network and applying network controllability theory to identify regulatory sectors capable of system-wide policy influence.Secondly,utilizing the Slacks-Based Measure(SBM)model to calculate sector-specific abatement costs and pinpoint key regulatory sectors with minimal potential costs.Thirdly,analyzing sources of carbon efficiency losses to propose differentiated emission reduction strategies tailored to industry characteristics.The key findings are as follows.Firstly,the minimum set of regulatory sectors required for effective emission control exhibits low in-degree centrality,indicating limited high-carbon upstream dependencies in critical manufacturing sectors.Secondly,in key sectors such as food and tobacco manufacturing,carbon productivity losses primarily stem from low scale efficiency,whereas textile industries suffer from poor pure technical efficiency.Thirdly,factor adjustment analysis reveals that energy inputs account for the largest share of adjustments(57.74%),followed by labor(52.83%)and capital(5.44%).

关 键 词：投入产出模型 网络可控性 潜在碳减排成本 效率损失分析 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]