居民就业稳定性对生育意愿的影响  

The Impact of Residents' Employment Stability on Fertility Intention

作　　者：王树 朱星 WANG Shu;ZHU Xing(School of Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang,Guizhou,China 550025)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学经济学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《昆明学院学报》2025年第2期45-56,共12页Journal of Kunming University

摘　　要：基于人口负增长的背景下,研究居民就业稳定性对生育意愿的影响,对防范生育率持续走低、促进人口高质量发展具有重要意义。本文利用2021年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)调查数据,实证检验了居民就业稳定性对生育意愿的影响及其作用机制,研究结果表明,就业的稳定显著促进居民提高生育意愿,并且在经过一系列稳健性检验后依旧成立。具体而言,就业稳定对生育意愿的影响在女性和北方地区具有显著的正向影响。机制分析表明,就业稳定能够使个体预期社会阶层向上流动,进而提高居民生育意愿。同时,家庭角色的性别分工观念正向增强了居民就业稳定性对生育意愿的促进作用。Against the backdrop of population negative growth,investigating the impact of residents'employment stability on fertility intentions holds significant implications for preventing sustained declines in fertility rates and promoting high-quality population development.This study utilizes data from the 2021 China General Social Survey(CGSS)to empirically examine the influence of employment stability on fertility intentions and its underlying mechanisms.The results indicate that employment stability significantly enhances fertility intentions,with a finding that remains established after a series of robustness tests.Specifically,the positive effect of employment stability on fertility intentions is more pronounced among females and residents in northern regions.Mechanism analysis reveals that employment stability fosters individuals'anticipation of upward social mobility,thereby increasing fertility intentions.Additionally,the attitudes of gender role regarding household divisions of labor amplify the positive effect of employment stability on fertility intentions.

关 键 词：就业稳定性 生育意愿 预期社会阶层 性别分工观念 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学]