人口老龄化对制造业出口技术复杂度的影响及其机制分析  

The Impact of Population Aging on the Technical Complexity of Manufacturing Exports and Its Mechanism Analysis

作　　者：徐毅[1] 刘俊 XU Yi;LIU Jun(School of Economics,Anhui University,Hefei,Anhui,China 230601)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学经济学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《昆明学院学报》2025年第2期112-125,共14页Journal of Kunming University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“‘双循环’新格局下制造业高质量发展的驱动机制、效果测度及提升策略研究”(21CJY050)。

摘　　要：提高出口产品技术含量是优化贸易出口结构,推动对外贸易高质量发展的重要抓手。基于2011~2021年省级面板数据,文章从劳动力的角度探究人口老龄化对制造业出口技术复杂度的影响。结果表明,人口老龄化与出口技术复杂度之间存在显著的倒“U”型关系,结论在经过稳健性检验和内生性分析后依然成立。机制分析发现,劳动力成本在老龄化对出口技术复杂度的影响中发挥了部分中介效应,人口老龄化与劳动力成本之间存在先抑制后促进的“U”型关系。异质性分析得出,从省际层面促进劳动力净流入、提高劳动力质量和强化劳动力保护,人口老龄化对出口技术复杂度的促进效果会更加明显,上述情况下倒“U”型曲线拐点的出现具有相对滞后性。Improving the technical content of export products is an important starting point for optimizing the export structure of trade and promoting the high-quality development of foreign trade.Based on the provincial panel data from 2011 to 2021,this paper explores the impact of population aging on the technical complexity of manufacturing exports from the perspective of labor.The results show that there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between population aging and export technology complexity,and the conclusion is still valid after the robustness test and endogeneity analysis.The mechanism analysis shows that labor cost plays a partial mediating effect in the impact of aging on the complexity of export technology,and there is a“U”shaped relationship between population aging and labor cost.The heterogeneity analysis shows the effect of population aging on the complexity of export technology will be more obvious with the help of promoting the net inflow of labor,improving the quality of labor force and strengthening the labor protection from the inter-provincial level,and the emergence of the inverted“U”curve inflection point in the above case has a relative lag.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 制造业出口技术复杂度 机制分析 异质性 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F424[经济管理—产业经济]