我国老龄产业投资的影响因素与作用路径阐释——以私募股权基金为例  

Explanation of Influencing Factors and Action Path of Investment in Aged Industry of China:The Case of Private Equity Funds

作　　者：蔡玉梅 李传兵 陈功[2] CAI Yumei;LI Chuanbing;CHEN Gong

机构地区：[1]华东政法大学社会发展学院,上海201620 [2]北京大学人口研究所,北京100871

出　　处：《社会工作》2025年第2期44-63,159,160,共22页Journal of Social Work

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“以时间银行创新推动实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略的理论和应用研究”(项目编号:23ZDA101)系列成果。

摘　　要：在我国老龄化进程加速的背景下,老龄产业投资成为推动养老服务体系完善的重要途径,私募股权基金作为破解老龄产业投融资瓶颈的关键力量,其投资影响因素和作用逻辑亟须系统性解构。本文基于展望理论,运用扎根分析方法提取私募股权基金投资老龄产业的核心影响因素,并构建了“影响因素—作用路径”的分析框架,以揭示私募股权基金投资老龄产业的逻辑机理。研究发现,影响私募股权基金投资老龄产业的因素主要涵盖市场行业、项目可投性、机构投资理念及社会环境四个方面,这些因素贯穿于私募股权基金的投资筛选与决策过程,并在不同作用路径中相互作用,共同影响投资选择。研究进一步归纳出两条直接和三条间接作用路径,在直接路径中,市场行业因素通过监管方的“需求刺激”机制直接影响投资意愿、机构投资理念通过基金供给方的“内在驱动”机制直接影响投资选择。在间接路径中,项目可投性通过融资需求方的“风险感知”机制作用于机构投资理念,从而间接影响投资决策;社会环境因素一是通过政策及监管环境的“政策调控”机制间接作用于市场行业因素并间接影响投资决策,二是通过资本市场环境的“环境约束”机制间接影响机构投资理念并间接塑造投资行为。本研究期望为政府、投资机构及老龄产业企业的决策提供理论支撑,助力我国老龄产业的可持续发展。In China,the aging industry market has broad prospects.However,there is a general financing bottleneck problem at present.The study takes the most important channel of direct financing,private equity funds,as an example.Through in-depth interviews with private equity fund investors,industry experts and entrepreneurs in the aging industry,based on prospect theory and using the grounded analysis method,this study extracts the main influencing factors of private equity funds investing in the aging industry.Through in-depth analysis of the internal relationship and action path between the influencing factors,this study constructs the action mechanism of each influencing factor under different action paths.Through the identification of the main influencing factors of private equity funds investing in the aging industry in China,it is found that the influencing factors cover four aspects:social environment,market industry,project investability and institutional investment philosophy.These influencing factors run through the entire process of private equity funds’investment in the aging industry project screening and decision-making.The interaction and interaction between these different influencing factors form an action mechanism that affects the investment selection and decision-making of private equity funds.The study also found that there are five pathways of action for investment in China’s aging industry.(1)In the pathway of“market industry factors→willingness to invest in the aging industry”,market industry factors mainly affect the investment choices and decisions of private equity funds through the“demand stimulation”mechanism of the regulator.(2)In the pathway of“social environment factors→market industry factors→willingness to invest in the aging industry”,the policy and regulatory environment in the social environment factors can indirectly affect the investment choices and decisions of private equity funds through the“policy regulation”mechanism from the regulator.(3)In the path o

关 键 词：老龄产业 私募股权基金 金融社会工作 老龄经济 

分 类 号：C916[经济管理]