基于多因素分析的深海矿产资源商业化开采时间节点研判  

Comprehensive Judgment on the Timing for Commercial Exploitation of Deep-sea Mineral Resources Based on Multi-factor Analysis

作　　者：刘成军[1,2] 刘禹维 曾轩 李满红[1,2] 郑皓 郝祥礼[1,2] LIU Chengjun;LIU Yuwei;ZENG Xuan;LI Manhong;ZHENG Hao;HAO Xiangli(Changsha Research Institute of Mining and Metalurgy Co.,Ltd.,Changsha,Hunan 410012,China;State Key Laboratory of Exploitation and Uhilization of Deep Sea Mineral Resources,Changsha,Hunan 410012,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙矿冶研究院有限责任公司,湖南长沙410012 [2]深海矿产资源开发利用技术国家重点实验室,湖南长沙410012

出　　处：《中国锰业》2025年第1期114-122,共9页China Manganese Industry

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金(编号:2021JC0010);国家重点研发计划(编号:2022YFC2806700)。

摘　　要：国际海底活动由勘探阶段向开发阶段加速转变,深海矿产资源商业化开采提上日程。通过金属市场形势、海底矿区勘探程度、采矿技术成熟度、国际规则发展趋势等多因素分析,综合研判深海矿产资源商业化开采的关键时间节点。基于折现现金流模型(DCF)与技术成熟度(TRL)评价方法,结合国际海底管理局(ISA)勘探合同到期压力与《“区域”内矿物资源开发规章》立法进程,量化评估项目经济性与制度约束。结果表明,当前部分勘探合同已具备开发申请条件,早期进入者可实现17%~27%的内部收益率(IRR),但需应对陆地矿产竞争及金属价格波动等市场风险。尽管深海采矿预期经济效益显著,但其发展进程仍受多重制约:技术层面,全系统集成能力不足导致多数技术处于TRL6~TRL7水平;制度层面,《“区域”内矿物资源开发规章》立法滞后与环保阈值严苛可能延缓商业化进程。在未来市场条件允许情况下,预计在6~8年内有望实现多金属结核商业化开采。International seabed activities are accelerating the transition from exploration to exploitation phases,placing deep-sea mineral resource commercialization on the agenda.By analyzing metal market trends,seabed mining area exploration degrees,mining technology maturity,and international rule development trends,this study comprehensively evaluates the critical timing for deep-sea mineral resource commercialization.Using the Discounted Cash Flow(DCF)model and Technology Readiness Level(TRL)method,alongside the International Seabed Authority(ISA)exploration contract expiration pressures and the legislative process of the“Regulations on the Development of Mineral Resources in the Area”,the project’s economic viability and institutional constraints are quantitatively assessed.The results show that some contractors already meet the criteria for development applications.Early entrants could achieve an Internal Rate of Return(IRR)of 17%-27%but must address market risks such as competition from terrestrial minerals and metal price volatility.Deep-sea mining shows significant promise and potential economic benefits.However,it faces major challenges and risks due to regulatory uncertainty,market volatility,technical complexity,and strict environmental requirements.Given favorable future market conditions,polymetallic nodule commercialization is anticipated within 6 to 8 years.

关 键 词：深海采矿 商业开采时机 多因素分析 多金属结核 技术经济评价 开发规章 

分 类 号：TD857[矿业工程—金属矿开采] TD9[矿业工程—矿山开采]