基于中断时间序列法评价新冠病毒感染对深圳市宝安区手足口病报告发病率的影响  

Application of Interrupted Time Series Analysis on the Impact of COVID-19 on the Reported Incidence Rate of Hand-foot-mouth Disease in Bao'an District of Shenzhen City

作　　者：陈春艳 赵执扬 陈亿雄[1] 李静[1] 刘金凤 李淑珍 夏挺松 CHEN Chunyan;ZHAO Zhiyang;CHEN Yixiong;LI Jing;LIU Jinfeng;LI Shuzhen;XIA Tingsong(Department of Infectious Disease Prevention,Bao'an Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenzhen,518101,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]深圳市宝安区疾病预防控制中心传染病防制科,广东深圳518101 [2]山西医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,山西太原030001

出　　处：《中国社会医学杂志》2025年第2期255-259,共5页Chinese Journal of Social Medicine

基　　金：广东省医学科学技术研究基金项目(A2020110);深圳市宝安区科技创新局项目(2021JD262)。

摘　　要：目的探索新型冠状病毒感染(COVID-19)干预措施的实施对深圳市宝安区手足口病报告发病率的影响,为手足口病的防控提供理论依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2018-2021年深圳市宝安区手足口病报告发病资料,并利用中断时间序列设计分析疫情期间的干预措施对宝安区手足口病的短期影响和长期影响。结果2018-2021年深圳市宝安区手足口病月均报告发病率为21.402/10万,新型冠状病毒感染发生后,手足口病报告发病率的水平变化量为-36.447/10万(t=-2.170,P=0.035),手足口病报告发病率的斜率变化量为0.915/10万(t=0.760,P=0.453),手足口病报告发病率的斜率为0.847(β_(1)+β_(3)=0.847)。结论新型冠状病毒感染期间的干预措施短期内降低了手足口病的报告发病率,应及时调整及优化手足口病的防控策略,减少传染病聚集性疫情的发生。Objective To explore the impact of intervention measures during COVID-19 on the reported incidence rate of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD)in Bao'an District of Shenzhen City,and provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of HFMD.Methods The reported incidence data of HFMD in Bao'an District of Shenzhen City from 2018 to 2021 was collected through the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System,and interrupted time series analysis was used to analyze the short-term and long-term changes of intervention measures during the epidemic on HFMD in Bao'an District of Shenzhen City.Results The monthly average reported incidence rate of HFMD in Bao'an District of Shenzhen City was 21.402/100000 from 2018 to 2021.After the COVID-19,the level change of reported incidence rate of HFMD was-36.447/100000(t=-2.170,P=0.035),and the slope change of the reported incidence rate of HFMD was 0.915/100000(t=0.760,P=0.453),and the slope of reported incidence rate of HFMD was 0.847(β_(1)+β_(3)=0.847).Conclusion The intervention measures during the period of COVID-19 will reduce the reported incidence rate of HFMD in a short period of time,but with the gradual normalization of the epidemic situation,the reported incidence rate of HFMD has not decreased significantly.It is suggested that the prevention and control strategy of HFMD should be adjusted and optimized in time to reduce the occurrence of epidemic aggregation of infectious diseases.

关 键 词：手足口病 报告发病率 新型冠状病毒感染 中断时间序列设计 

分 类 号：R183.4[医药卫生—流行病学] R184.6[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]