日本政局新变动及其成因与影响  

New Political Changes in Japan and Their Causes and Effects

作　　者：刘江永 LIU Jiangyong(Beijing Foreign Studies University,Beijing 100089,China;Department of International Relations,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学,北京100089 [2]清华大学国际关系学系,北京100084

出　　处：《杭州师范大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期18-32,共15页Journal of Hangzhou Normal University(Humanities and Social Sciences)

摘　　要：2024年是日本政局经历了剧烈震荡的多事之秋,其变化节奏之快前所罕见。同年11月,一场场悬念不断的日本政治变局连续剧终于落幕,石破茂当选日本首相。然而,联合执政的自民党和公明党在大选中未获过半数议席,日本众议院出现“朝小野大”局面,石破茂内阁执政基础脆弱。与此同时,美国大选也揭晓,特朗普再度当选美国总统。美国共和党全面控制众参两院及最高法院,处于强势垄断地位。日本将于2025年7月举行参议院选举,政局还可能再度动荡,中美日关系也将迎来新的变化,因此有必要就这一阶段日本政局发生的新变动及其成因与影响做一分析。2024 was a troubled year for Japan's political situation,with a pace of change that was unprecedented before.In November of the same year,a series of suspenseful Japanese political dramas finally came to an end,and Shigeru Ishiba was elected as the Prime Minister of Japan.However,the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party did not receive a majority of seats in the general election,and the Japanese House of Representatives faced a situation of“weak government and strong opposition”.The ruling foundation of the Shigeru Ishiba cabinet was fragile.At the same time,the US presidential election was also announced,and Trump was re-elected as the President of the United States.The Republican Party in the United States has full control over both houses of Congress and the Supreme Court,and is in a strong monopoly position.Japan will hold Senate elections in July 2025,and the political situation may become unstable again.The relationship between China,the United States,and Japan will also undergo a new round of adjustment.Therefore,it is of great significance to focus on analyzing the new changes in Japan's political situation during this period,as well as their causes and effects.

关 键 词：日本 石破茂 安倍晋三 中日关系 

分 类 号：D731.3[政治法律—政治学]