高速铁路快运动车组运输需求预测研究  

Traffic Demand Forecast of High Speed Railway Freight Express on EMU Train

作　　者：金方磊 夏天 JIN Fanglei;XIA Tian(Transportation Research Department,China Railway Economic and Planning Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100038,China;Harbin South Station,China Railway Harbin Group Co.,Ltd.,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150086,China)

机构地区：[1]中国铁路经济规划研究院有限公司运输研究所,北京100038 [2]中国铁路哈尔滨局集团有限公司哈尔滨南站,黑龙江哈尔滨150086

出　　处：《铁道经济研究》2025年第2期38-48,共11页Railway Economics Research

基　　金：中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划(J2024Z403;J2023Z403)。

摘　　要：全国异地快递市场的发展为高铁快运提供了良好的需求基础。随着我国高铁快运业务的不断发展,规模化开行高铁快运动车组成为当前发展的一个主要方向。在梳理我国高铁快运发展现状的基础上,预测未来高铁快运需求,充分考虑高铁快运的目标市场特征,将时效快件比例、运输距离别的快递业务量占比、高铁快运的市场份额等因素纳入预测方法,提高预测结果的可靠性。基于我国50个城市间快递业务OD流量分布的样本数据,利用不同城市平均单件快递收入重构时效快件OD需求分布,预测50个城市间高铁快运OD需求分布。基于货源稳定、双向货流均衡的原则,分析2025年、2035年有潜力开行高铁快运动车组的城市,并分析高铁快运动车组规模化开行的支撑条件。The development of the national-wide intercity express market provides a good demand foundation for high speed rail‐way freight express.With the continuous development of China's high speed railway express business,large-scale operation of high‐speed railway freight express EMUs has become a major development direction at present.Based on the analysis of the development status of China's high speed railway freight express,this paper predicts the future demand of high speed railway freight express.Fully considering the target market characteristics and incorporating factors such as the proportion of time-limited express mail,the proportion of express business volume classified by transportation distance,and the market share of high speed rail express into the forecasting method,the reliability of the forecasting results is improved.Based on the sample data of OD flow distribution of express delivery business among 50 cities in China,the OD demand distribution of time-limited express delivery is reconstructed by using the average single express delivery revenue of different cities,and the OD demand distribution of high speed railway express deliv‐ery among 50 cities is predicted.Based on the principles of stable supply and balanced two-way cargo flow,this paper analyzes the cities with potential to operate high speed freight express trains in 2025 and 2035,and analyzes the supporting conditions for large-scale operation of high speed trains.

关 键 词：高铁快运 动车组 快递业务 时效快件 OD需求分布 需求预测 修正系数 开行城市 

分 类 号：U294.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] U2-9[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]