重症监护病房导尿管相关尿路感染影响因素及预测模型构建  

Analysis on influencing factors and prediction model construction of catheter-associated urinary tract infections in ICU

作　　者：陈姝蒙 张金唐宏 CHEN Shumeng;ZHANG Jin Tanghong(Department of Disease Control and Prevention,920th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force,Kunming Yunnan 650032,China)

机构地区：[1]联勤保障部队第九二〇医院疾病预防控制科,云南昆明650032

出　　处：《云南医药》2025年第2期25-28,共4页Medicine and Pharmacy of Yunnan

摘　　要：目的构建导尿管相关尿路感染风险预测模型,为制定防控措施提供依据。方法收集2022年7月-2023年6月本院重症监护病房802名留置导尿管患者资料,运用χ^(2)检验、Logistic回归分析,建立风险预测模型,用ROC曲线评估模型预测价值。结果单因素分析显示,导尿管相关尿路感染发生率与住院天数、导尿管留置天数、是否有脑血管病、是否手术差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。Logistic回归,导尿管留置时间、是否有脑血管疾病是影响因素,Logistic回归模型有效性评价,模型系数综合检验χ^(2)=59.296,DF=2,P<0.001,显示该模型建立有统计学意义。模型拟合优度检验显示,模型拟合良好(χ^(2)=1.694,DF=5,P=0.890)。Logistic回归模型方程判别能力,AUC=0.795,敏感度82.6%,特异度53.9%,预测模型有较好判别效果。结论影响本院重症监护病房导尿管相关尿路感染因素为导尿管留置时间及是否患脑血管疾病,后续可采取针对性防控措施。Objective To establish risk prediction model of catheter-associated urinary tract infections(CAUTI)in ICU,so as to provide basis for formulating prevention and control measures.Methods Data of 802 patients with catheter in ICU of our hospital from July 2022 to June 2023 were collected.χ^(2) test and Logistic regression analysis were used to establish a risk prediction model,and ROC curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of the model.Results Through univariate analysis,the incidence of CAUTI was significantly different from hospitalization days,catheter retention days,cerebrovascular disease,and operation(P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that catheter indentation time,and presence of cerebrovascular disease were the influencing factors of CAUTI.The effectiveness evaluation of Logistic regression model and comprehensive test of model coefficients χ^(2)=59.296,DF=2,P<0.001 showed that the establishment of the model had statistical significance.The goodness of fit test showed that the model fits well(χ^(2)=1.694,DF=5,P=0.890).Logistic regression model equation discriminant ability,AUC=0.795,sensitivity was 82.6%,and specificity was 53.9%,the prediction model had a good discriminant effect.Conclusions The high risk factors affecting CAUTI infection rate in the intensive care unit of our hospital are catheter indwelling time and cerebrovascular disease,and targeted prevention and control measures can be taken in the future.

关 键 词：重症监护病房 导尿管相关尿路感染 LOGISTIC回归模型 危险因素 

分 类 号：R472.2[医药卫生—急诊医学]