2018—2022年通辽市主要慢性病早死概率变化趋势及差别分解分析  

Changing trends in and difference decomposition of premature death probabilities caused by major chronic diseases in Tongliao City,2018-2022

作　　者：董昱斌 商娜 邵华[2] 赵丽[2] 周伏园 刘春芳[1] 布仁巴图 DONG Yubin;SHANG Na;SHAO Hua;ZHAO Li;ZHOU Fuyuan;LIU Chunfang;BUREN Batu(School of Public Health,Baotou Medical College,Baotou,Inner Mongolia 014060,China;Tongliao Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Tongliao,Inner Mongolia 028000,China)

机构地区：[1]包头医学院公共卫生学院,内蒙古包头014060 [2]通辽市疾病预防控制中心,内蒙古通辽028000

出　　处：《实用预防医学》2025年第3期273-277,共5页Practical Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的分析2018—2022年通辽市常住人口居民4类主要慢性病(恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病、慢性呼吸系统疾病、糖尿病)的死亡率、早死概率及死因差别分解分析,为全面推进健康通辽建设及制定符合当地实际的慢性病防控策略提供依据。方法采用Excel 2019和SPSS 20.0统计软件进行数据的清洗与整理分析,计算通辽市4类主要慢性病的粗死亡率、标化死亡率、早死概率等指标。应用Joinpoint Regression Program 4.2软件计算年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)描述年度变化情况。利用死亡率差别分解法分析人口因素和非人口因素对4类主要慢性病死亡率的贡献。结果2018—2022年通辽市居民4类主要慢性病粗死亡率呈上升趋势(APC=8.63%,t=10.495,P<0.05),标化死亡率无明显变化趋势(P>0.05)。其中恶性肿瘤(APC=5.29%,t=4.977,P<0.05)、心脑血管疾病(APC=10.09%,t=9.827,P<0.05)、慢性呼吸系统疾病(APC=6.82%,t=3.548,P<0.05)粗死亡率呈上升趋势,糖尿病无明显变化趋势(P>0.05),4种慢性病标化死亡率均无明显变化趋势(P>0.05)。恶性肿瘤早死概率呈下降趋势(APC=-6.03%,t=-6.425,P<0.05),其他3类主要慢性病无明显变化趋势(P>0.05)。人口与非人口因素均促进了4类主要慢性病死亡率的上升。其中人口因素均促进了上述4种慢性病死亡率上升,非人口因素降低了恶性肿瘤与慢性呼吸系统疾病的死亡率。结论2018—2022年通辽市4类主要慢性病死亡率受人口老龄化因素影响呈上升趋势,加强非人口因素的干预力度如医疗保障、疾病预防控制及诊疗水平,可有效降低该地居民慢性病死亡率。Objective To analyze the mortality rates,premature death probabilities and difference decomposition analyses of death causes of four major chronic diseases(including malignant tumors,cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes mellitus)among permanent residents in Tongliao City from 2018 to 2022,and to provide a basis for comprehensively promoting the construction of healthy Tongliao and formulating strategies for prevention and control of chronic diseases in line with local realities.Methods Excel 2019 and SPSS 20.0 software were used for data cleaning,collation and analysis.We calculated the indices like the crude death rates(CDRs),standardized mortality ratios(SMRs),and premature death probabilities of the four major chronic diseases in Tongliao City.The Joinpoint Regression Program 4.2 software was applied to calculating the annual percentage change(APC)and describing the annual changes.The mortality difference decomposition method was employed to analyze the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors to the mortality rates of the four major chronic diseases.Results The crude mortality rate of the four major chronic diseases among residents in Tongliao City during 2018-2022 showed an upward trend(APC=8.63%,t=10.495,P<0.05),while there was no obvious changing trend in the standardized mortality ratio(P>0.05).The crude mortality rates of malignant tumors(APC=5.29%,t=4.977,P<0.05),cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases(APC=10.09%,t=9.827,P<0.05)and chronic respiratory diseases(APC=6.82%,t=3.548,P<0.05)showed upward trends,but there was no obvious changing trend in diabetes mellitus(P>0.05).No obvious changing trends were found in the standardized mortality ratios of the four chronic diseases(P>0.05).The premature death probability of malignant tumors showed a downward trend(APC=-6.03%,t=-6.425,P<0.05),but no obvious changing trends were observed in the other three major chronic diseases(P>0.05).Both demographic and non-demographic factors promoted the i

关 键 词：慢性病 死亡率 早死概率 差别分解法 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学]