基于DLNM对2015—2022年大理白族自治州居民死因的分析  

Analysis of the Causes of Death of Residents in Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture from 2015 to 2022 Based on DLNM

作　　者：李宛婴 姬思宇 陈梓甄 黄可 岩勇相 向萌 李丽娟 Li Wanying;Ji Siyu;Chen Zizhen;Huang Ke;Yan Yongxiang;Xiang Meng;Li Lijuan(College of Public Health,Dali University,Dali,Yunnan 671000,China;Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture,Dali,Yunnan 671000,China;School of Basic Medical Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]大理大学公共卫生学院,云南大理671000 [2]大理州疾病预防控制中心,云南大理671000 [3]复旦大学基础医学院,上海200433

出　　处：《大理大学学报》2025年第4期87-94,共8页Journal of Dali University

摘　　要：目的:分析大理白族自治州2015—2022年居民死亡受气温、空气污染影响的变化情况,为制定相应的公共卫生策略提供科学依据。方法:收集大理白族自治州2015—2022年人群死亡资料、气象资料和空气污染资料,通过构建分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM),分析不同日均气温水平和不同PM值暴露对当地居民人群死亡的非线性效应和累积滞后效应。结果:2015—2022年大理白族自治州居民合计死亡194480人,标化死亡率为624.34/10万。低温和高温对于人群的死亡均有影响,高温和低温情况下DLNM建模结果都显示居民死亡相对危险度(RR)值升高;但随着累积滞后时长的增加,高温状态下的RR值逐渐降低,低温状态下累积效应没有随时长增加而发生明显变化。大理白族自治州居民暴露于低PM2.5值和低PM10值时RR值不高,暴露于高PM2.5值和高PM10值时RR值较大,但随着累积滞后时长的增加,RR值逐渐下降。结论:大理白族自治州居民,尤其是患有心血管系统、呼吸系统等基础疾病的人群,应在低温情况下做好个人保暖措施;同时在空气质量下降时减少外出频率,做好个人防护措施。Objective:To analyze the changes of resident deaths affected by temperature and air pollution from 2015 to 2022 in Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture,and to provide scientific basis for formulating corresponding public health strategies.Methods:Population death data,meteorological data and air pollution data were collected in Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture from 2015 to 2022.A distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was constructed to analyze the nonlinear effect and cumulative lag effect of exposure to different daily temperature levels and PM values on local population death.Results:A total of 194480 residents died in Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture from 2015 to 2022,with a standardized mortality rate of 624.34/100000.Both low temperature and high temperature had an impact on the death of the population,and the DLNM modeling results showed that the relative risk(RR)value of resident death increases under both high temperature and low temperature conditions.However,with the increase of the cumulative lag time,the RR value at high temperature gradually decreases,and the cumulative effect does not change significantly at low temperature.In Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture,the RR values were not high when residents were exposed to low PM2.5 and low PM10 values,while the RR values were large when exposed to high PM2.5 and high PM10 values.However,the RR values gradually decreased with the increase of the cumulative lag time.Conclusion:Residents of Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture,especially those who suffer from cardiovascular system,respiratory system and other basic illnesses,should take personal warming measures in low temperatures;meanwhile,reduce the frequency of going out and take personal protective measures when the air quality decreases.

关 键 词：死亡率 分布滞后非线性模型 温度 空气污染 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]