贸易政策不确定性与企业创新  

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Enterprise Innovation

作　　者：毕鹏波 BI Pengbo(The Party School of the Yantai Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China,Yantai Shangdong 264000,China)

机构地区：[1]中共烟台市委党校,山东烟台264000

出　　处：《德州学院学报》2025年第2期19-26,共8页Journal of Dezhou University

基　　金：中共山东省委党校(山东行政学院)习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想重大招标项目(2022XTZ017)。

摘　　要：基于2003~2021年中国上市公司数据,使用贸易政策不确定性指数,分析贸易政策不确定性如何影响企业创新。结论表明,在增长期权效应和政府政策扶持的作用下,贸易政策不确定性上升对企业创新具有促进作用。其中,经营业绩波动和经营风险提升是增长期权效应的作用渠道,企业获得的政府补贴和税收优惠是政府政策扶持的作用渠道。异质性分析表明,贸易政策不确定性更加能够促进低融资约束企业、面临较高行业竞争程度企业、高新技术企业以及出口企业的创新。使用贸易摩擦事件衡量贸易政策不确定性再次证实了贸易政策不确定性促进企业创新的结论。该研究可以为企业应对贸易政策不确定性带来一定的政策启示。Based on the data of Chinese listed companies from 2003~2021,this paper analyzes the influence of trade policy uncertainty on enterprise innovation using trade policy uncertainty index.The results show that the rise of trade policy uncertainty can have a positive impact on the innovation of enterprises,and the growth option effect and government’s policy support play a leading role.Specifically,the fluctuation of business performance and increased operational risk are the intermediary channels of the growth option effect,the government subsidies and tax incentives received by enterprises are the intermediary channels of the government’s policy support.Heterogeneous analysis shows that trade policy uncertainty plays a greater role in enterprises with low financial constraints,enterprises facing a high degree of industry competition,high-tech enterprises and export enterprises.Further,by using the trade friction events are to measure the trade policy uncertainty and conduct empirical analysis,the results confirm that the trade policy uncertainty can promote the enterprise innovation.This research provides some policy implications for firms to deal with trade policy uncertainty.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 企业创新 增长期权效应 政府政策扶持 

分 类 号：F741[经济管理—国际贸易] F272[经济管理—产业经济]