基于改进DEMATEL-ISM集成模型的中国煤层气开采影响因素系统结构分析  

System Structure Analysis of Influencing Factors of Coalbed Methane Mining in China Based on Improved DEMATEL-ISM Integration Model

作　　者：李乔楚 罗平亚[2] LI Qiaochu;LUO Pingya(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院,成都610500 [2]西南石油大学油气藏地质及开发工程全国重点实验室,成都610500

出　　处：《油气与新能源》2025年第2期1-10,25,共11页Petroleum and new energy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“能源革命驱动下的天然气产业高质量发展路径研究”(22&ZD105);国家社会科学基金西部项目“‘双碳’目标下我国城市群能源系统碳达峰预测及差异化减排路径研究”(22XGL019);四川省哲学社会科学重点研究基地学术研究专项资助项目“新质生产力赋能四川天然气产业高质量发展的作用机理及政策建议”(SC24E091);2024年成都市哲学社会科学规划项目“面向深度脱碳的成都新型能源体系构建研究”(2024BS072)。

摘　　要：厘清中国煤层气开采多元影响因素的系统结构,有助于准确把握破解开采限制瓶颈的关键。通过引入梯形模糊数量化专家模糊评价语言,运用节点度和交叉影响矩阵相乘法(MICMAC)优化阈值设定,明确多元因素间的主次关系,进而建立改进的决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)和解释结构模型(ISM)集成模型。基于该集成模型,分析多元影响因素的驱动力、依赖度、中心度和因果度,深入探讨因素演化发展的逻辑层次与递进关系。研究结果显示:煤层气开采影响因素分布于8阶层级,可归为“自发、联动、独立、依赖”四大集群,形成“深层—中层—表层”递进结构;涵盖吸解参数、气体类型、煤层改造技术等的表层直接因素直接影响煤层气开采进程,对其进行优化可在短期内推动生产作业、提升开采成效;涵盖可采特征、岩层特征、典型气藏等的中层间接因素在系统中起到承上启下的作用,将深层因素的影响传递给表层因素;涵盖资源禀赋、煤岩要素、储层特征等的深层根本因素位于网络结构底层,不受表层和中层因素影响,仅有对其有效管控才能从本质上推动煤层气开采利用。研究结果可为破解中国煤层气产业高质量发展瓶颈提供理论参考。Clarifying the system structure of multiple influencing factors of coalbed methane mining in China is helpful to accurately grasp the key to solving the bottleneck of mining restrictions.The paper introduces the trapezoidal fuzzy number to quantify the expert fuzzy evaluation language,applies the node degree and cross-impact matrix multiplication to classification(MICMAC) and optimize the threshold setting,clarifies the primary and secondary relationships among multiple factors,establishes an improved integrated model of decision making trial evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL) and interpretative structural model(ISM),analyzes such diverse influencing factors as driving force,dependence degree,centrality degree,and causality degree based on the model,and deeply discusses the logical level and progressive relationship of the evolution and development of these factors.The results show that the influencing factors are distributed at 8 levels,belonging to such four major clusters as spontaneous cluster,linkage cluster,independent cluster,and dependent cluster,forming a progressive structure from deep to middle to surface.The surface direct factors including absorption and desorption parameters,gas types,and coal seam transformation technologies,directly affect the coalbed methane extraction process.Improving the surface direct factors could improve the production operation in a short time and promote the mining efficiency.The middle indirect factors including recoverable characteristics,rock formation characteristics,and typical gas reservoirs,play a connecting role in the system and transfer the influence of deep factors to surface factors.The deep fundamental factors covering resource endowment,coal and rock elements,and reservoir characteristics are located at the bottom of the network structure,not affected by the surface and middle factors,and can facilitate exploitation and utilization of coalbed methane in essence only when they are effectively managed and controlled.The research results can provide theoretical gui

关 键 词：煤层气开采 影响因素 系统结构 DEMATEL ISM 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]