赣南地区水土流失风险评估分析  

Risk assessment of soil and water loss in the southern Jiangxi region

作　　者：赖桂林 聂小飞 LAI Guilin;NIE Xiaofei(Jiangxi Hongtu Technology Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Nanchang Jiangxi,330029,China;Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering,Nanchang Jiangxi,330029,China;Jiangxi Key Laboratory of Watershed Soil and Water Conservation,Nanchang Jiangxi,330029,China;Jiangxi Provincial Technology Innovation Center for Ecological Water Engineering in Poyang Lake Basin,Nanchang Jiangxi,330029,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省洪图技术咨询有限公司,江西南昌330029 [2]江西省水利科学院,江西南昌330029 [3]流域水土保持江西省重点实验室,江西南昌330029 [4]江西省鄱阳湖流域生态水利技术创新中心,江西南昌330029

出　　处：《江西水利科技》2025年第2期131-136,共6页Jiangxi Hydraulic Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42267058);江西水利科技项目(202426ZDKT14)。

摘　　要：在地理信息技术快速发展的背景下,预判生态风险发生的可能性及其危险程度成为可能。文章在遥感信息数据源提取影响水土流失的自然因子和土地利用类型的基础上,结合偏最小二乘回归分析识别的主要社会经济影响因子,采用层次分析法建立水土流失风险评估指标体系,并基于ArcGIS对水土流失风险等级进行空间分析。结果表明:赣南地区水土流失风险等级呈现出西南向东北增强的趋势,无风险区、低风险区、中风险区、高风险区、极高风险区的占比为:13.66%、27.64%、28.80%、22.50%、7.40%,极高风险区分布最为集中,主要在宁都县,占66.91%。研究结果可为区域水土流失风险评估、水土保持重点工程空间布局及国土空间开发格局设计提供方法参考。With the rapid development of Geographic Information Science,it is possible to predict the possibility anddanger degree of ecological risk.Based on the extraction of natural factors and land use types affecting soil and waterloss from remote sensing information data sources,combined with the main socio-economic factors identified by partialleast squares regression analysis,this study established the soil and water loss risk assessment index system by analytichierarchy process,and spatial analysis on the risk level of soil and water loss based on ArcGIS was carried out.Theresults indicated that the risk grade of soil and water loss in the southern Jiangxi region exhibited an increasing trendfrom southwest to northeast.The proportions of no-risk areas,low-risk areas,medium risk areas,high-risk areas,andextremely high-risk areas were 13.66%,27.64%,28.80%,22.50% and 7.40% respectively.The extremely high-riskareas were the most concentrated,primarily located in Ningdu County,accounting for 66.91%.The findings of this studycan provide methodological references and data support for regional soil erosion risk assessment,spatial layout of keysoil and water conservation projects,and the design of national spatial development patterns.

关 键 词：水土流失风险 地理信息系统 偏最小二乘回归分析 层次分析法 

分 类 号：S157.1[农业科学—土壤学]