基于公众数据预测中华秋沙鸭适宜分布区评价  

Citizen Science-Based Identification of Suitable Distribution Areas for Mergus squamatus

作　　者：王丞 蒋万胜 牛艳东[3] 邓智勇 解宜兴 魏营 WANG Cheng;JIANG Wan-sheng;NIU Yan-dong;DENG Zhi-yong;XIE Yi-xing;WEI Ying(Zhangjiajie Giant Salamander National Nature Reserve Affairs Center,Zhangjiajje 427400,Hunan,China;College of Biology and Environmental Sciences,Jishou University,Jishou 416000,Hunan,China;Hunan Academy of Forestry,Changsha 410004,Hunan,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南张家界大鲵国家级自然保护区事务中心,湖南张家界427400 [2]吉首大学生物资源与环境科学学院,湖南吉首416000 [3]湖南省林业科学院,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《湿地科学与管理》2025年第2期45-52,共8页Wetland Science & Management

基　　金：湖南省创新平台与人才计划(2020RC3057);2024年国家重点野生动植物保护项目。

摘　　要：物种分布体现了其对环境的适应、扩散能力和进化历程,对评估其濒危状况和制定保护措施至关重要。为明确中华秋沙鸭(Mergus squamatus)在中国的空间分布及影响因素,研究借助中国观鸟记录中心和eBird的公众观鸟报告,使用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测其在全国范围内越冬期和非越冬期适宜栖息地分布。结果表明:中华秋沙鸭越冬期与非越冬期分布模型预测AUC分别为0.95、0.92,表明预测结果精准可信。在6个主要环境变量中,海拔、距水源距离和土地利用是影响中华秋沙鸭全年分布主要因子,其偏好低海拔(<500 m)的耕地—森林—人工地表复合水体环境。中华秋沙鸭越冬期偏好最冷季均温4~9℃、等温性22%~31%、年降水量950~1800 mm的区域,回避海拔高于950 m的区域。非越冬期则偏好年均温11℃以上(最适温度为20℃)、降水量变异系数小于81%的区域,适生水域不受道路影响,回避海拔高于1150 m的区域。中华秋沙鸭越冬期的潜在适生区总面积为212.28×10^(4) km^(2),集中在长江流域的四川、重庆、湖北、湖南、江西等地。非越冬期的潜在适生区总面积为224.02×10^(4) km^(2),散布于长江流域、珠江流域和黄河下游,相较于越冬期,其分布呈现出从中国西部、中部向东部、东北部迁移的趋势。研究揭示了中华秋沙鸭的分布变化和环境影响,不仅为该物种的监测管理与和协同保护提供了科学依据,还强调了公众科学在野生动物保护中的价值,对中华秋沙鸭等珍稀水鸟的保护具重要意义。The distribution of the Mergus squamatus reflects its adaptation to diverse environments,its dispersal ability across vast distances,and its evolutionary history,which is crucial for assessing its endangered status and formulating effective conservation measures.To elucidate the spatial distribution and ecological impacts of Mergus squamatus,the study employed MaxEnt modeling to predict the suitable habitats for both wintering and non-wintering periods in China.This was achieved using comprehensive data from the China Bird-watching Records Center and eBird,supplemented by insights from detailed studies on the species'distribution in regions such as the Changbai Mountains and Jiangxi Province.The results demonstrated that the Area Under the Curve(AUC)values for the distribution models during the overwintering and non-overwintering periods were 0.95 and 0.92,respectively,indicating high accuracy and reliability of the predictions.Among the six primary environmental variables,The study on the Mergus squamatus habitat selection revealed that factors such as river width,concealment,and the number of gravel shoals are significant environmental factors influencing habitat choice,which aligns with the dominant factors of elevation,proximity to water sources,and land use.influencing the year-round distribution of Mergus squamatus.The species exhibited strong preferences for low-elevation(<500 m)aquatic environments characterized by farmland-forest-artificial surface mosaics.During the wintering period,optimal habitats occurred in regions with a mean temperature of the coldest quarter(4~9℃),isothermality(22%~31%),and annual precipitation(950~1800 mm),while elevations exceeding 950 m were systematically avoided.In contrast,non-wintering habitats were primarily associated with warmer conditions(mean annual temperature>11℃,optimal:20℃)and lower precipitation variability(coefficient of variation<81%).Notably,road proximity showed no significant influence on habitat suitability during this period,but elevations above 1150

关 键 词：中华秋沙鸭 公众科学 最大熵模型 适宜分布区 

分 类 号：Q958[生物学—动物学]