信息生态视角下突发公共事件网络舆情热度生成机理研究——基于50个案例的模糊集定性比较分析  

Generating Mechanism of Online Public Opinion Heat in Public Emergencies from the Perspective of Information Ecology:Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis Based on 50 Cases

作　　者：游鸽 李洁琳 张帆顺 YOU Ge;LI Jielin;ZHANG Fangshun(School of Literature and Media,Nanfang College Guangzhou,Guangzhou 510970;School of Literature and Media,Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University,Guangzhou 510665;School of Business,Xiangtan University,Xiangtan 411105)

机构地区：[1]广州南方学院文学与传媒学院,广州510970 [2]广东技术师范大学文学与传媒学院,广州510665 [3]湘潭大学商学院,湘潭411105

出　　处：《农业图书情报学报》2025年第1期86-99,共14页Journal of Library and Information Science in Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“数字化赋能雨洪灾害下超特大城市社区韧性动态测量与提升策略研究”(72404237);广东省哲学社会科学规划2024年度青年项目“突发事件冲击下的金融系统性风险传染机理与预警机制研究”(GD24YGL32);广东省普通高校青年创新人才类项目“群体动力学视角下学科知识网络中新兴主题涌现模型与探测算法研究”(2022KQNCX138)。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]突发公共事件极易触发网络舆情,造成公众恐慌,引发社会稳定问题。研究突发公共事件网络舆情热度生成机理能够为防范化解网络舆情风险提供理论支撑,助力政府提升网络舆情治理的精度和效率。[方法/过程]本文从信息生态的视角出发,采用模糊集定性比较分析法对2020—2022年50个突发公共事件的网络舆情热度进行分析,探究了信息、信息人、信息环境、信息技术等4个前因条件的要素组态对突发公共事件网络舆情热度生成的影响机制。[结果/结论]研究发现,事件热度峰值、网民关注度、意见领袖传播力是网络舆情热度生成的核心条件,单个因素不构成舆情生成的必要条件,信息环境和信息技术虽然不是高热度舆情生成的必要条件,但在一定程度上起到了助推作用。[Purpose/Significance]Public emergencies frequently trigger online public opinion,exacerbating public panic and threatening social stability.The intrinsic linkage between public emergencies and online discourse amplifies the dissemination of public emotions,attitudes,and perspectives across online platforms,creating a feedback loop that influences event dynamics.Investigating the generation mechanism of public opinion on hot topics in such contexts provides critical theoretical foundations for mitigating cyber discourse risks,while enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of governmental mangement over online public opinion.[Method/Process]From an information ecology perspective,this study employs fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to examine the online public opinion heat of 50 public emergencies between 2020 and 2022.We analyze eight conditional variables across four dimensions-information,information person,information technology,and information environment-including peak propagation speed,peak event popularity,netizen attention,opinion leaders'communication power,important media participation,central media coverage,the proportion of the overall public opinion field,and event duration.Single-factor necessity detection and configuration analysis were performed,and robustness was tested by adjusting calibration points and consistency thresholds.Finally,based on empirical findings,we interpreted case studies and proposed a mechanism for the generation of online public opinion heat in public emergencies.[Results/Conclusions]The results reveal that information and information people are the primary drivers and key causes of hot public opinion.Although information environment and information technology are not necessary conditions,they still contribute to the process.In public emergencies,multiple factors jointly influence online public opinion,and no single factor alone determines its intensity.Rather,the complementarity of multiple factors can,to some extent,substitute for seemingly necessary conditions.The k

关 键 词：信息生态 模糊集定性比较分析 突发公共事件 网络舆情热度 社交媒体 信息行为 

分 类 号：G353.1[文化科学—情报学]