气候变化背景下青藏高原绿绒蒿属植物地理分布格局  

Geographical distribution pattern of Meconopsis on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under the background of climate change

作　　者：陈晓玥 胡华伟 李文龙[3] 熊友才[4] 王文颖 段迎珠 贾科 CHEN Xiao-yue;HU Hua-wei;LI Wen-long;XIONG You-cai;WANG Wen-ying;DUAN Ying-zhu;JIA Ke(College of Life Sciences,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,China;College of Biological and Food Engineering,Huanghuai University,Zhumadian 463000,Henan,China;College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730020,China;College of Ecology,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability,People's Government of Qinghai Province,Beijing Normal University,Xining 810008,China;Qinghai Grassland Improvement Experimental Station,Gonghe 813099,Qinghai,China)

机构地区：[1]青海师范大学生命科学学院,西宁810008 [2]黄淮学院生物与食品工程学院,河南驻马店463000 [3]兰州大学草地农业科技学院,兰州730020 [4]兰州大学生态学院,兰州730000 [5]青海省人民政府-北京师范大学高原科学与可持续发展研究院,西宁810008 [6]青海省草原改良试验站,青海共和813099

出　　处：《兰州大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第2期143-155,166,共14页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFF1304305);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0502);高等学校创新引智基地项目(D23029)。

摘　　要：运用MaxEnt最大熵模型模拟预测当前气候条件以及未来2050s和2070s 4种共享社会经济路径下,青藏高原14种绿绒蒿属植物的地理分布格局及其变化.结果表明,年降水量、气温季节性变动系数、最暖季度降水量和年温度变化范围是影响绿绒蒿属植物分布的主要环境因子;当前气候条件下,绿绒蒿属植物总适生区面积为1.141×10~6 km^(2),占青藏高原面积的45.23%,主要分布在青藏高原的东南部,包括青海省、西藏自治区和四川省;在未来气候情景下,绿绒蒿属植物总适生区面积均有增加,在2050s时期增加幅度分别为2.69%、0.30%、0.13%、3.53%,在2070s时期增加幅度分别为3.85%、2.21%、3.08%、4.62%;低辐射低强迫气候情景下的生态环境更有利于单叶、毛瓣绿绒蒿的生长繁殖,高辐射高强迫气候情景下的生态环境更有利于白花、多刺、红花、椭果、总状绿绒蒿的生长繁殖以及生长区域的扩展.The maximum entropy model was used to simulate and predict the geographical distribution patterns and changes of 14 species of Meconopsis on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under current climatic conditions and four shared socioeconomic pathways in the 2050s and 2070s.The results showed that annual precipitation,temperature seasonality,precipitation of warmest quarter and temperature annual range were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of Meconopsis.Under the current climatic conditions,the total suitable area of Meconopsis is 1.141×10~6 km~2,accounting for 45.23% of the area of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,mainly distributed in the southeast of the Plateau,including Qinghai Province,Xizang Autonomous Region and Sichuan Province.Under the future climate scenario,the total suitable area of Meconopsis increased,with the increase rate being 2.69%,0.30%,0.13% and 3.53% in the 2050s,and 3.85%,2.21%,3.08% and 4.62% in the 2070s,respectively.The ecological environment under the low-radiation and low-forcing climate scenario was more conducive to the growth and reproduction of M.simplicifolia and M.torquata,and the ecological environment under the high-radiation and high-forcing climate scenario was more conducive to the growth and reproduction of M.argemonantha,M.horridula,M.punicea,M.chelidonifolia and M.racemosa,as well as the expansion of the growth area.

关 键 词：绿绒蒿属 最大熵模型 社会经济路径 地理分布 青藏高原 

分 类 号：Q948.112[生物学—植物学]