卵巢子宫内膜异位囊肿保守性手术后复发列线图预测模型的构建  

Development of a Nomogram Prediction Model for Postoperative Recurrence of Ovarian Endometriosis after Conservative Surgery

作　　者：于淼 赵金钗[1] 金环宇 周琮宇 张琳[1] 杜彦芳[1] YU Miao;ZHAO Jinchai;JIN Huanyu(Department of Gynecology,The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北医科大学第二医院妇科,河北石家庄050000

出　　处：《实用妇产科杂志》2025年第4期341-345,共5页Journal of Practical Obstetrics and Gynecology

摘　　要：目的:构建卵巢子宫内膜异位囊肿(OEM)保守性手术后复发列线图预测模型,为评估OEM患者术后复发提供参考依据。方法:回顾性分析2017年1月1日至2021年10月31日在河北医科大学第二医院接受初次腹腔镜OEM剥除术的342例患者的临床、病理及随访资料。基于单变量与多变量Cox回归分析,确定影响OEM复发的相关因素。根据多变量分析的结果,绘制列线图。C指数和受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线用来检验该预测模型的效能。结果:OEM患者术后2年复发率为20.4%,5年复发率为35.2%。经单变量和多变量Cox回归分析,月经周期长(HR 0.916,95%CI 0.860~0.976,P=0.006)、产次≥1次(HR 0.376,95%CI 0.171~0.827,P=0.015)、CA_(125)≥100 U/ml(HR 1.790,95%CI 1.167~2.746,P=0.008)、囊肿总直径≥10 cm(HR 2.254,95%CI 1.318~3.854,P=0.003)、术后用药(HR 0.434,95%CI 0.292~0.644,P=0.000)与OEM复发相关,被纳入列线图预测模型。预测模型C指数为0.710(95%CI 0.665~0.754),OEM患者术后2年复发的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.786,5年复发ROC的AUC为0.708。结论:本研究建立了一个列线图预测45岁以下接受保守手术的OEM患者术后2年和5年复发的概率,具有较理想的预测效果,有助于临床医生筛查高危患者,从而给予患者额外的关注和干预。Objective:The prediction model of postoperative recurrence of ovarian endometriosis cyst(OEM)was constructed to provide a reference for evaluating postoperative recurrence of OEM patients.Methods:The clinical,pathological and follow-up data of 342 patients who underwent the initial laparoscopic ovarian cystectomy for OEM at The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 1,2017 to October 31,2021 were retrospectively analyzed.Based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis,the relevant factors affecting OEM recurrence were identified.According to the results of multivariate analysis,a nomogram was drawn.The C index and receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve were used to test the efficiency of the prediction model.Results:The 2-year recurrence rate of OEM patients was 20.4%and the 5-year recurrence rate was 35.2%.Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that menstrual cycle(HR 0.916,95%CI 0.860-0.976,P=0.006),delivery≥1(HR 0.376,95%CI 0.171-0.827,P=0.015),CA_(125)≥100 U/ml(HR 1.790,95%CI 1.167-2.746,P=0.008),total cyst diameter≥10 cm(HR 2.254,95%CI 1.318-3.854,P=0.003),and postoperative medications(HR 0.434,95%CI 0.292-0.644,P=0.000)were associated with OEM recurrence and were included in the nomogram prediction model.The C-index of the nomogram prediction model was 0.710(95%CI 0.665-0.754),and the area under the curve(AUC)of the ROC for OEM patients with recurrence at 2 years after surgery was 0.786 and 0.708 at 5 years.Conclusions:In this study,we developed a nomogram to predict the probability of recurrence at 2 years and 5 years for OEM patients under 45 years who underwent conservative surgery,which has ideal predictive performance and helps clinicians to screen high-risk patients,and thus give high-risk OEM patients additional attention and intervention.

关 键 词：卵巢子宫内膜异位囊肿 复发 影响因素 列线图 预测模型 

分 类 号：R711.71[医药卫生—妇产科学]