全球主要经济体货币政策实施的“涟漪效应”研究  

Research on the“Ripple Effect”of Monetary Policy Implementation in Major Economic Powers Globally

作　　者：张旭 张彤 ZHANG Xu;ZHANG Tong(School of Management Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学管理工程学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《金融教育研究》2025年第1期50-71,共22页Research of Finance and Education

基　　金：江苏省社会科学基金青年项目“‘双支柱’框架下基于机器学习的货币政策调控模式创新研究”(20EYC011);国家社会科学基金项目“‘数智+金融’赋能专精特新企业高质量发展的机制与路径研究”(23BJL106);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目“基于流动性供需失衡的中国股票市场‘高波动之谜’研究”(2021T140335);中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目“宏观经济动量研究”(2021M691635)。

摘　　要：近年来,成本推动型通货膨胀在全球蔓延,使得全球货币政策的同步性不断提升。鉴于此,构建了一种新颖的双向“涟漪效应”检验方法,研究协调性货币政策和非协调性货币政策的“涟漪效应”,识别“涟漪效应”的正向、负向涟漪中心及其持续期。研究结果表明:货币政策实施的涟漪中心属性及其方向具有显著的时变性。在非协调性货币政策涟漪效应检验中,美国、欧元区、瑞典是正向涟漪中心,匈牙利是负向涟漪中心,正向涟漪往往比负向涟漪的分布密度更大且持续时间更长。而在协调性货币政策涟漪效应检验中,欧元区、中国、日本、丹麦是正向涟漪中心,英国和美国是负向涟漪中心。美联储对其他经济体货币政策的正向溢出主要体现在非协调性货币政策层面。另外,地缘、文化、政治关联对货币政策涟漪效应影响显著。In recent years,cost-push inflation has spread globally,leading to increasing synchronization of global monetary policies.In light of this,this paper constructs a novel bidirectional“ripple effect”test method to study the“ripple effect”of coordinated monetary policy and non-coordinated monetary policy,and identifies the positive and negative ripple centers and their durations.The results indicate that the ripple center attribute and direction of monetary policy implementation have significant time-varying characteristics.In the test of the ripple effect of non-coordinated monetary policy,the United States,the eurozone and Sweden are positive ripple centers,while Hungary is a negative ripple center.Positive ripples tend to have a higher distribution density and longer duration than negative ones.In the test of the ripple effect of coordinated monetary policy,the eurozone,China,Japan and Denmark are positive ripple centers,while the United Kingdom and the United States are negative ripple centers.The positive spillover of the Fed’s monetary policy on other economies mainly manifests at the level of non-coordinated monetary policy.In addition,geopolitical,cultural,and political connections have a significant impact on the ripple effect of monetary policy.

关 键 词：货币政策 双向“涟漪效应” 泰勒规则 涟漪持续期 

分 类 号：F821.0[经济管理—财政学]