基于概率性仿真的危化品多米诺事故风险动态评估软件系统设计与应用  

Design and application of software for dynamic risk assessment on domino accidents of hazardous chemicals based on probabilistic simulation

作　　者：贺治超 兰猛 贺非凡 翁文国[1,3] HE Zhichao;LAN Meng;HE Feifan;WENG Wenguo(School of Safety Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Department of Building Environment and Energy Engineering,the Hong Kong Polytechnic University,Hong Kong 999077,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of City Integrated Emergency Response Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学安全科学学院,北京100084 [2]香港理工大学建筑环境与能源工程学系,中国香港999077 [3]城市综合应急科学北京市重点实验室,北京100084

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2025年第4期5-11,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3008702,2023YFC3008703);国家自然科学基金项目(72404160,72034004)。

摘　　要：为应对危化品工业集聚化、规模化的发展趋势所导致的愈发凸显的危化品事故多灾种、多米诺效应特征,阐述1种针对危化品火灾、爆炸、毒气泄漏多灾种多米诺事故的动态定量风险评估软件系统Domino-MCS,该软件系统以多米诺事故动态发展过程的概率性仿真为基础,开展基于蒙特卡洛模拟的多米诺事故数据合成,进而计算得到危化品工业区域的动态综合事故风险。研究结果表明:该软件系统可计算自事故发生始至300 s乃至更长时间的危化品多灾种多米诺事故动态综合风险,其可根据多米诺事故的动态发展特征计算事故个人风险期望的特点,具有动态性、综合性等优势。研究结果可为危化品工业区域的安全与应急提供管理科学参考和决策支持。To address the increasingly prominent characteristics of multi-hazard and domino effect in hazardous chemicals accidents due to the development trend of clustering and scaling of hazardous chemicals industry,a dynamic quantitative risk assessment software system called“Domino-MCS”for the multi-hazard and domino accidents involving hazardous chemical fire,explosion,and toxic gas release was illustrated.Based on the probabilistic simulation of the dynamic development process of domino accidents,the data synthesis of domino accidents based on Monte Carlo simulation was carried out,and the dynamic comprehensive accident risk of hazardous chemical industrial areas was calculated and obtained.The results show that the software system can calculate the dynamic comprehensive risk of multi-hazard and domino accidents of hazardous chemicals from the beginning of accident to 300 s or even longer.It can calculate the individual risk expectation of accident according to the dynamic development characteristics of the domino accident,and has the advantages of dynamic and comprehensiveness.The research results can provide scientific reference and decision-making support for the safety and emergency management of hazardous chemicals industrial areas.

关 键 词：蒙特卡洛模拟 风险定量评估 风险可视化 安全管理 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]