地下空间洪涝灾害人员疏散风险偏好差异模拟研究  

Simulation study on risk preference difference of personnel evacuation during flood disaster in underground spaces

作　　者：王春青[1] 王梦灿 魏祎璇 吴楠 韩迪 潘嵩[4] WANG Chunqing;WANG Mengcan;WEI Yixuan;WU Nan;HAN Di;PAN Song(School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering,Jilin Jianzhu University,Changchun Jilin 130118,China;Research Institute of Macro-Safety Science,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Beijing General Municipal Engineering Design&Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100082,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Building Environment and Energy Efficient Technology,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林建筑大学市政与环境工程学院,吉林长春130118 [2]北京科技大学大安全科学研究院,北京100083 [3]北京市市政工程设计研究总院有限公司,北京100082 [4]北京工业大学绿色建筑环境与节能技术北京市重点实验室,北京100124

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2025年第4期165-172,共8页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：住房和城乡建设部2022年科学技术计划项目(2022-K-034)。

摘　　要：为探究地下空间洪涝灾害下人员疏散风险偏好个体化差异,基于E-prime平台开展疏散决策实验,根据实验结果,采用博弈论理论、聚类分析对被试进行风险偏好分类,建立随机参数Logit模型,描述被试路径选择概率,并分析研究决策效率及影响因素。研究结果表明:疏散人员可分为风险规避型(risk averter,RA)和风险追求型(risk seeker,RS),2类人群风险偏好积分S存在显著差异(z=-4.01,P<0.001),标识引导对路径选择具有显著影响(P<0.001);主观因素来看,2类人群在空间导航能力自评价上存在显著差异(P<0.05),RS群体决策效率显著高于RA群体,女性决策效率高于男性(P<0.05)。研究结果可为洪涝灾害下人员行为规律分析研究提供理论参考。To investigate the individual difference in risk preference during the personnel evacuation in underground space under flood disaster,the evacuation decision-making experiment was conducted based on the E-prime platform.According to the experimental results,the game theory and cluster analysis were employed to classify the risk preferences of subjects.A random parameter Logit model was established to describe the path selection probabilities of subjects,and the decision-making efficiency and influencing factors were analyzed.The results show that the evacuees can be categorized into risk averters(RA)and risk seekers(RS).A significant difference in the risk preference integral S was observed between the two groups(z=-4.01,P<0.001).The signage guidance presents a significant impact on path selection(P<0.001).Regarding the subjective factors,there is a significant difference between the two groups in self-assessment of spatial navigation capacity(P<0.05).The RS group demonstrates significantly higher decision-making efficiency compared to the RA group,and the females exhibite higher decision-making efficiency than males(P<0.05).The research results can provide a theoretical reference for the analysis on the behavior law of personnel in flood disasters.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 地下空间 风险偏好 LOGIT模型 路径选择 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]