基于DBN-GRA的非坠机民航客机火灾风险分析  

Analysis onfire risk of non-crash civil aircraft based on DBN-GRA

作　　者：王霞[1] 孟娟 张海军 WANG Xia;MENG Juan;ZHANG Haijun(College of Safety Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2025年第4期202-210,共9页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费项目(3122019011);天津市科技计划项目(21JCJQJC00040)。

摘　　要：为降低民航客机火灾事故率,以飞行全过程及3个关键飞行阶段作为维度,采用动态贝叶斯网络模型对非坠机民航客机火灾进行风险分析。根据火灾起火燃烧的当量比及事故演化的过程,基于事故致因模型确定事件因素,构建火灾风险分析模型;收集2014—2024年民航火灾事故数据,确定基本事件的先验概率,并应用BWM法计算中间事件的条件概率;运用灰色关联分析提取各维度关联因素结合动态时序变化构建动态贝叶斯网络,进行火灾风险分析,识别关键风险因素。研究结果表明:非坠机民航客机火灾初期发展阶段时物的因素与环境因素影响最高,充分燃烧阶段时组织管理因素和货物因素影响最高;飞行关键阶段中飞机机体自身因素和组织管理因素为高风险因素。研究结果可为提高非坠机民航客机火灾风险预警与应急管理能力提供决策参考。In order to reduce the fire accident rate of civil aircraft,taking the whole flight process and three key flight stages as dimensions,the dynamic Bayesian network(DBN)model was used to analyze the fire risk of non-crash civil aircraft.According to the equivalent ratio of fire combustion and the evolution process of accident,the incident factors were determined based on the accident cause model,and the fire risk analysis model was constructed.The data of civil aviation fire accidents in 2014—2024 were collected,then the prior probability of basic events was determined,and the conditional probability of intermediate events was calculated by BWM method.The grey relational analysis(GRA)was used to extract the relational factors of each dimension,and a dynamic Bayesian network was established combining with dynamic time series change to conduct the fire risk analysis and identify the key risk factors.The results show that the influence of physical factorsand environmental factors are the highest in the initial development stage of non-crash civil aircraft fire,and the influence of organizational and management factors and cargo factors are the highest in the full combustion stage.In the keyflightstages,the factors of aircraft body itself and organization and management are the high risk factors.The research results can provide decision-making reference for improving the ability of risk warning and emergency managementof the non-crash civil aircraft fires.

关 键 词：非坠机事件 民航客机火灾 动态贝叶斯网络 灰色关联分析 风险分析 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]