外部冲击下中国金融开放风险的测度与化解:基于国际收支管理视角  

Measurement and Resolution of China′s Financial Liberalization Risk under External Shocks:from the Perspective of Balance of Payments Management

作　　者：杨荣海 杜林丰 YANG Ronghai;DU Linfeng

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学金融学院 [2]云南财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2025年第3期33-48,M0002,共17页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助重点项目“‘去美元化’、人民币国际化与数字人民币发展研究”(项目编号:21FJLA003);国家社会科学基金项目“‘十四五’时期扩大金融业对外开放的风险及防范研究”(项目编号:21XJY010)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：金融开放不仅给中国带来了发展机遇,也伴随出现了各类外部冲击。文章测度了不同类型外部冲击给中国金融开放带来的风险,并提出了化解外部冲击的思路。研究发现:第一,中国金融开放测度需要从资本账户开放与金融市场开放两个角度展开,当前中国金融开放程度不高,金融开放风险整体也处于较低水平;第二,尽管外部整体冲击对中国金融开放风险的影响呈现逐渐减弱的态势,但却持续存在;第三,国别冲击中以外部财政冲击的影响最大,国际冲击中以国际通胀冲击的影响最大;第四,从化解策略来看,线性策略全部失效,交互策略和“U形”策略尽管可以有效化解外部冲击带来的风险,但存在政策失效区间。文章认为要保持国际收支顺差,合理控制外汇储备规模,协调好提高对外出口规模与维持资本金融账户平衡之间的关系,这样才可以有效构筑防范与化解外部风险冲击的第一道防线。Financial liberalization not only brings China with ample development opportunities but also introduces a myriad of external challenges.This paper evaluates the risks posed by diverse external shocks to China′s financial liberalization and proposes strategies to mitigate these shocks.It reveals that the measurement of China′s financial liberalization should encompass two facets:capital account liberalization and financial market openness.Currently,China′s financial liberalization stands at a moderate level,with the overall associated risk remaining low.Although the overall impact of external shocks on the risk of China′s financial liberalization has gradually weakened,it still exists.Among domestic shocks,external fiscal disturbances exert the greatest impact,whereas international inflation shocks have the most significant influence among global disturbances.In terms of resolution strategies,linear approaches have proven ineffective,whereas interactive strategies and U-shaped strategies can efficiently address the risks stemming from external shocks,albeit with intervals of policy ineffectiveness.The article believes that it is necessary to maintain a surplus in the international balance of payments,reasonably control the scale of foreign exchange reserves,and coordinate the relationship between improving export levels and maintaining the balance of the capital financial account.By doing so,China can effectively construct a robust first line of defense against and mitigate external risks.

关 键 词：外部冲击 金融开放风险 测度与化解 国际收支管理 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]