美国货币政策不确定性冲击与企业数字化转型:来自中国OFDI上市企业的证据  

US Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shocks and Firms′Digital Transformation:Evidence from Chinese OFDI Listed Firms

作　　者：王鹏[1] 陈蝶欣 WANG Peng;CHEN Diexin

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2025年第3期78-92,M0003,共16页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(项目编号:72474084);广东省自然科学基金面上项目(项目编号:406252848029);广东产业发展与粤港澳台区域合作研究中心科研项目(项目编号:37714001004)资助。

摘　　要：特朗普总统重新上台给美联储的货币政策制定带来挑战,美国货币政策的国际溢出效应是新兴市场经济波动和金融困境的主要来源。文章基于FOMC议息会议引致的货币政策不确定性意外变动数据,研究美国货币政策不确定性冲击通过OFDI对中国企业数字化转型的影响。研究发现,美国货币政策不确定性冲击能够通过OFDI影响中国企业,其数字化转型的激励作用随着不确定性的提高而提高。机制分析表明,美国货币政策不确定性冲击主要通过增长期权效应来推动中国OFDI企业数字化转型。异质性分析表明,对于数字技术研发产出更高、经济政策不确定性感知更高、组织韧性更高的中国OFDI企业而言,美国货币政策不确定性冲击对其数字化转型的推动作用更强。进一步分析发现,美国货币政策不确定性冲击的溢出效果受到资本管制程度的影响,中国OFDI企业资本管制程度越低,不确定性冲击对数字化转型的推动效应越突出。文章提供了美国货币政策不确定性冲击对中国企业数字化转型影响的新证据,为企业如何应对特朗普再次当选总统后美国货币政策的不确定性冲击提供一定的理论支撑和政策启示。President Trump′s return to power has posed challenges to the Federal Reserve′s monetary policymaking.Moreover,international spillovers from US monetary policy have become a major source of economic volatility and financial distress in emerging markets.This paper investigates the impact of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks on the digital transformation of Chinese firms through OFDI based on data regarding unexpected changes in monetary policy uncertainty induced by FOMC interest rate meetings.It is found that US monetary policy uncertainty shocks are able to affect Chinese firms through OFDI,and their incentives for digital transformation tend to increase as uncertainty rises.Mechanism analysis shows that such shocks primarily drive the digital transformation of Chinese OFDI firms mainly through growth option effects.Heterogeneity analysis shows that Chinese OFDI firms with higher digital technology R&D output,higher perceived economic policy uncertainty,and higher organizational resilience have stronger incentives for digital transformation in response to US monetary policy uncertainty shocks.Further analysis reveals that the spillover effect of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks is affected by the degree of capital control,and the lower the degree of capital control imposed on Chinese OFDI firms,the more prominent the impact of these uncertainty shocks on their digital transformation.This paper provides new evidence regarding the influence of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks on the digital transformation of Chinese firms and provides theoretical support and policy insights into how firms can effectively cope with such uncertainty shocks following Trump′s re-election as president.

关 键 词：美国货币政策 不确定性冲击 中国企业数字化转型 OFDI 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]