人工智能创新与制造业出口国内增加值率:基于跨国面板数据的实证考察  

Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Domestic Value-Added Rate of Manufacturing Exports:An Empirical Examination Based on Cross-National Panel Data

作　　者：邹家阳 张明 林乔影 孔祥飞 ZOU Jiayang;ZHANG Ming;LIN Qiaoying;KONG Xiangfei

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院世界经济研究所 [2]安徽大学经济学院 [3]上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院 [4]上海WTO事务咨询中心

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2025年第3期122-134,M0004,共14页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“数字经济国际孤岛化与全球治理走向研究”(项目编号:24BGJ030);上海WTO事务咨询中心2023年度青年课题项目“国际经贸规则重构背景下全球数字技术产业链的变化趋势:以人工智能产业为例”(项目编号:2023-4-2-3)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：运用人工智能技术推动货物贸易优化升级是中国等发展中国家获取制造业出口新动力的关键方向之一。文章利用2013—2020年CSET CAT数据库的人工智能专利数据和OECD TiVA数据库的制造业出口国内增加值率数据,探讨了人工智能创新对国家制造业出口国内增加值率的影响。研究发现,国家的人工智能创新能够显著提升制造业出口国内增加值率,并且该结论在进行内生性检验和稳健性检验后仍然成立;发展中国家和亚洲国家在利用人工智能创新推动制造业出口升级方面表现尤为突出,发达国家和非亚洲国家则并不显著。进一步研究表明,人工智能创新通过提高生产率和货物采购内向化程度提升制造业出口的国内增加值率。文章的结论为中国等发展中国家在数字经济时代利用新兴技术提高制造业出口贸易利得吸收效率、实现制造业出口转型升级提供了有益的参考。Utilizing artificial intelligence technology to optimize and upgrade merchandise trade is one of the key directions for countries including China to gain new momentum in manufacturing exports.This paper explores the impact of artificial intelligence innovation on the domestic value-added rate(DVAR)of manufacturing exports using patent data from the CSET CAT database and domestic value-added rate data from the OECD Tiva database for the period2013-2020.The study finds that a country′s artificial intelligence innovation can significantly enhance the domestic value-added rate of its manufacturing exports,and this conclusion remains valid after conducting endogeneity and robustness tests.Developing countries and Asian countries demonstrate particularly notable performance in leveraging artificial intelligence innovation to promote manufacturing export upgrades,while developed countries and non-Asian countries do not show significant effects.Further research indicates that artificial intelligence innovation promotes the increase in domestic value-added rate of manufacturing exports by enhancing productivity and the inward orientation of goods procurement.The conclusions of this paper provide valuable insights for developing countries,including China,to improve the efficiency of absorbing gains from manufacturing exports and achieve transformation and upgrading of manufacturing exports through emerging technologies in the digital economy era.

关 键 词：人工智能创新 制造业出口国内增加值率 跨国面板 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]