工程中BIM取舍的风险与收益研究——基于PCA调优后的三方演化博弈  

Research on the risks and benefits of BIM trade-offs in engineering basedon the three-way evolution game after PCA tuning

作　　者：高磊 吴庆 卢子涵 刘阳 李涛[4] GAO Lei;WU Qing;LU Zihan;LIU Yang;LI Tao(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,Zhenjiang 212100,China;Marine Equipment and Technology Institute,Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,Zhenjiang 212003,China;School of Computer Science and Technology,Anhui University,Hefei 230039,China;Information Construction and Management Office,Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,Zhenjiang 212100,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏科技大学土木工程与建筑学院,镇江212100 [2]江苏科技大学海洋装备研究院,镇江212003 [3]安徽大学计算机科学与技术学院,合肥230039 [4]江苏科技大学信息化建设与管理办公室,镇江212100

出　　处：《江苏科技大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第2期74-83,共10页Journal of Jiangsu University of Science and Technology:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(52278194);中国高等教育学会高等教育科学研究规划课题(22XX0203)。

摘　　要：为更好促成建筑信息模型(building information modeling,BIM)技术在实际工程中的有效应用,需要深入了解利益相关方在BIM取舍时对何种决策更加支持,以及何种风险因素更可能左右其决策.通过分析施工、环境、技术、合同4种风险场景行为,构建业主方、设计方和施工方三方演化博弈模型,并根据这些风险的影响程度分别调查三方主体,得到特征属性差别大的高维数据集,借助机器学习中的主成分分析(principal component analysis,PCA)方法,对高维数据集进行降维,并在实际工程场景下进行仿真模拟,得到了实现三方利益最大化的最优稳定策略及风险控制措施.结果表明,设计方在策略选择时最易受到风险因素的影响,但仍旧会积极地应用BIM技术,承包方会考虑BIM设计与实际施工存在出入,更倾向于减少对BIM技术的依赖,业主方选择对BIM应用中的行为进行直接干预,则可以促进设计方和承包方的合作,最大限度地实现项目利益最大化和风险的有效控制.In order to better promote the effective application of building information modeling(BIM)technology in practical engineering,it is necessary to have a deep understanding of which decisions stakeholders are more supportive when making BIM choices,and which potential risk factors are more likely to influence their decisions.This study analyzes the behavior of four risk scenarios:construction,environment,technology,and contract,constructs an evolutionary game model for the owner,design,and construction parties,and investigates the three parties based on the degree of impact of these risks.A high-dimensional dataset with significant differences in characteristic attributes is obtained,and the principal component analysis(PCA)method in machine learning is used to reduce the dimensionality of the high-dimensional dataset.Simulation is conducted in actual engineering scenarios to determine the optimal stability strategy and risk control measures to maximize the interests of the three parties.The results indicate that the design team is most susceptible to risk factors when choosing strategies,but still actively applies BIM technology.The contractor will consider the discrepancies between BIM design and actual construction,and is more inclined to reduce reliance on BIM technology.If the owner chooses to directly intervene in the behavior of BIM application,it can promote cooperation between the design team and the contractor,maximize project benefits,and effectively control risks.

关 键 词：三方演化博弈 PCA方法 BIM风险 BIM收益 

分 类 号：F282[经济管理—国民经济]