基于Mann-Kendall检验和Morlet小波的年均降雨量分析  

Analysis of Annual Average Rainfall Based on Mann-Kendall Test and Morlet Wavelet

作　　者：李静睿[1,2] LI Jingrui(Ankang Meteorological Bureau,Shaanxi Province,Ankang 725000,China;Severe Weather Research and Application Center of the Key Laboratory of Ecological Environment of Qinling and Loess Plateau,Xi’an 710016,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西省安康市气象局,陕西安康725000 [2]秦岭和黄土高原生态环境重点实验室灾害性天气研究与应用中心,陕西西安710016

出　　处：《微型电脑应用》2025年第2期301-303,312,共4页Microcomputer Applications

摘　　要：为了给农业生产和水资源管理提供科学的指导和参考依据,选择某地1970—2018年年均降雨量为研究对象,运用Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验法、累积距平法以及Morlet小波分析法分析该地近49年来的降雨量时空变化特征。研究结果表明,近49年的降雨量整体呈现增加的趋势,1985—1989年和1995—2002年年均降雨量持续减少,2003—2011年降雨量呈现增加趋势,但是降雨量仍然偏少。M-K检验结果表明,2003年后降雨量呈现增加趋势,降雨量在0~5年时间尺度上能量最强、降雨周期最显著,但其降雨周期变化具有局部性,集中于1992—1995年。In order to provide scientific guidance and reference for agricultural production and water resources management,the average annual rainfall of a certain area from 1970 to 2018 is selected as the research object.The Mann-Kendall(M-K)test method,cumulative anomaly method and Morlet wavelet analysis method are used for the analysis.The results of the study show that the overall rainfall in the past 49 years has shown an increasing trend.The average annual rainfall has continued to decrease between 1985—1989 and 1995—2002.The rainfall has shown an increasing trend between 2003—2011,but the rainfall is still biased and few.The result of M-K test showed that rainfall showed an increasing trend after 2003.Rainfall has the strongest energy and the most significant rainfall cycle on a time scale of 0 to 5 years,but its rainfall cycle changes are localized and concentrated between 1992 and 1995.

关 键 词：Mann-Kendall检验法 累积距平法 Morlet小波变换 滑动平均 

分 类 号：S161.6[农业科学—农业气象学]