基于RF-Markov-PLUS耦合模型的多情景下国土空间变化预测研究  

PREDICTION OF TERRITORIAL SPATIAL CHANGES UNDER MULTI-SCENARIOS BASED ON RF-MARKOV-PLUS COUPLED MODEL

作　　者：吴志斌 WU Zhibin(Hainan Guoyuan Institute of Land and Mineral Survey Planning and Design Co.,Ltd.,Haikou 570203,Hainan,China)

机构地区：[1]海南国源土地矿产勘测规划设计院有限公司,海南海口570203

出　　处：《资源信息与工程》2025年第2期114-118,共5页Resource Information and Engineering

摘　　要：为探索国土空间的可持续发展之路,基于随机森林模型(RF)、马尔可夫(Markov)模型和斑块生成土地利用模拟(PLUS)模型,构建RF-Markov-PLUS耦合模型,对研究区在4种不同情景下的国土空间变化进行预测分析。结果表明:研究区在综合发展模式下,预测至2030年,生产空间面积将平稳增长,可确保农田基本保护红线,生活空间面积扩张速度最为缓慢,生态空间面积降低幅度较2020年仅为0.78%;相比生产空间优先、生活空间优先和生态空间优先3种情景,综合发展模式的“三生空间”满足可持续发展的需求,各空间分配更加合理。In order to explore the sustainable development path of territorial space,an RF-Markov-PLUS coupled model is constructed based on the random forest(RF)model,Markov model,and patch generated land use simulation(PLUS)model to predict and analyze the territorial spatial changes in the study area under four different scenarios.The results indicate that under the comprehensive development model,the area of production space in the study area is projected to steadily increase by 2030,which ensures the red line of basic protection of farmland.The expansion rate of living space area is the slowest,and the decrease of ecological space area is only 0.78%compared with 2020.Compared with the three scenarios of prioritizing production space,living space,and ecological space,the"three living space"of the comprehensive development model meets the needs of sustainable development,and the distribution of each space is more reasonable.

关 键 词：RF-Markov-PLUS 耦合模型 多情景 国土空间变化预测 

分 类 号：TU98[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]