基于变应性鼻炎就诊人次的春季和夏秋季花粉分级和预报模型  

Spring and summer-autumn pollen grading and forecasting model based on daily visits of allergic rhinitis patients

作　　者：欧阳昱晖[1,2] 尹炤寅 燕云 陈敬国 费文轩 宫丽丽 刘卫卫[7] 刘晓佳 宋道亮 许振东[10] 张英[11] 张媛[1,2] 张罗[1,2] Ouyang Yuhui;Yin Zhaoyin;Yan Yun;Chen Jingguo;Fei Wenxuan;Gong Lili;Liu Weiwei;Liu Xiaojia;Song Daoliang;Xu Zhendong;Zhang Ying;Zhang Yuan;Zhang Luo(Department of Allergy,Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery,Beijing Tongren Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100730,China;Beijing Laboratory of Allergic Diseases,Municipal Education Commission and Beijing Key Laboratory of Nasal Diseases,Beijing Institute of Otolaryngology,Research Unit of Diagnosis and Treatment of Chronic Nasal Diseases,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences,Beijing 100005,China;Institute of Urban Meteorology,Beijing Meteorological Administration,Beijing Meteorological Service Center,Beijing 100089,China;Department of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery,the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi′an Jiaotong University,Xi′an 710004,China;Department of Otolaryngology,Dongchangfu Maternal and Child Health Hospital,Liaocheng 252003,China;Department of Otolaryngology,Liaocheng People′s Hospital,Liaocheng 252000,China;Department of Otolaryngology,Cangzhou People′s Hospital,Cangzhou 061001,China;Department of Otolaryngology,Inner Mongolia People′s Hospital,Hohhot 010010,China;Department of Otolaryngology,Zibo Central Hospital,Zibo 255020,China;Department of Otolaryngology,Baotou Central Hospital,Baotou 014042,China;Department of Otolaryngology,Affiliated Hospital of Qinghai University,Xining 810000,China)

机构地区：[1]首都医科大学附属北京同仁医院过敏科和耳鼻咽喉头颈外科,北京100730 [2]北京市耳鼻咽喉研究所过敏性疾病北京实验室和鼻病研究北京市重点实验室、中国医学科学院慢性鼻病诊疗研究创新单元,北京100005 [3]北京城市气象研究院、北京市气象服务中心,北京100089 [4]西安交通大学第二附属医院耳鼻咽喉头颈外科,西安710004 [5]聊城市东昌府区妇幼保健医院耳鼻咽喉科,聊城252003 [6]聊城市人民医院耳鼻咽喉科,聊城252000 [7]沧州市人民医院耳鼻咽喉科,沧州061001 [8]内蒙古自治区人民医院耳鼻咽喉科,呼和浩特010010 [9]淄博市中心医院耳鼻咽喉科,淄博255020 [10]包头市中心医院耳鼻咽喉科,包头014042 [11]青海大学附属医院耳鼻喉科,西宁810000

出　　处：《中华耳鼻咽喉头颈外科杂志》2025年第3期313-320,共8页Chinese Journal of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFC2504100)。

摘　　要：目的根据北方8个城市历年花粉和变应性鼻炎(AR)就诊人次数据,建立北方春季和夏秋季花粉浓度分级预报模型,实现花粉浓度预报。方法分析北京、包头、呼和浩特、西安、西宁、沧州、聊城和淄博8个北方城市历年春季和夏秋季的花粉浓度和AR就诊人群特点,利用Spearman分析其相关性,建立春季和夏秋季花粉的浓度分级;根据分级阈值、气象因素以及花粉浓度连续1~3 d平均值,构建原始数据集,使用极端梯度提升树(eXtreme gradient boosting,XGBoost)算法建立花粉预报模型。结果北京和西安市的春季花粉期开始早且持续时间长,西宁、包头和呼和浩特市夏秋季花粉期开始早且持续时间长;各城市的夏秋季以及除包头和沧州市之外城市的春季花粉期平均日就诊人次显著高于非花粉季节。各城市综合的春季和夏秋季日就诊人次与连续3 d平均花粉浓度有显著相关性,据此相关性建立北方春季和夏秋季花粉浓度的分级标准。花粉浓度预报模型评估显示,完全准确及相差一级的春季预测样本超过91%,夏秋季超过95%;预测模型中最重要的自变量因子是1 d前花粉级别,其次是气象因子温度和湿度。结论大气花粉浓度分级预报可为花粉过敏患者的出行、早期防御和治疗,以及临床药物研究和特异性免疫治疗的用药时间确定提供指导和相关决策信息。ObjectiveTo establish graded forecast models of pollen concentration in spring and summer-autumn in northern China,based on long-term data of pollen and allergic rhinitis(AR)medical visits in 8 cities of northern China.MethodsPollen concentration and the characteristics of AR patients from 8 cities of northern China,including Beijing,Baotou,Hohhot,Xi′an,Xining,Cangzhou,Liaocheng and Zibo,were analyzed.Spearman′s correlation was used to examine the relationship between pollen concentration and daily AR patient visits.A pollen concentration grading was establish,and a pollen forecast model was created using the eXtreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)algorithm.The model incorporated meteorological factors and the 3-day moving average of pollen concentrations.ResultsThe spring pollen period started early and lasted long in Beijing and Xi′an,while the summer-autumn pollen period started earlier and persisted longer in Xining,Baotou and Hohhot.During summer-autumn pollen period,and the spring period in most cities(except Baotou and Cangzhou),average daily patient visits were significantly higher than those in non-pollen periods.A strong correlation was observed between daily AR patient visits and the 3-day moving average of pollen concentrations in both the spring and summer-autumn periods across all cities.Based on the correlation,a pollen concentration grading standard of northern China was established.The accuracy evaluation of pollen concentration prediction model showed that the percentage of forecasts with either completely accurate or within one level difference exceeded 91%in spring and 95%in summer-autumn.The most important predictive variable in the model was the pollen level from previous day,followed by the temperature and humidity.ConclusionThe grading prediction model for pollen concentration provides guidance for AR patients in term of travel,early defense and treatment,as well as the determining medication schedules for clinical drug research and specific immunotherapy.

关 键 词：鼻炎 变应性 花粉 就诊人次 分级阈值 XGBoost算法 预报模型 

分 类 号：R765[医药卫生—耳鼻咽喉科]