分水江流域水库群联合预报调度研究  

Joint Forecasting and Dispatching of Reservoirs in Fenshuijiang River Basin

作　　者：张玉伦 陈洲 邓翔 杨丽丽 ZHANG Yulun;CHEN Zhou;DENG Xiang;YANG Lili(Hangzhou Water Resources Development Planning Research Center,Hangzhou 310000,China;Qiantang River Basin Center of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310020,China;Rhils Smart Technology Co.Ltd.,Beijing 100037,China;Beijing Heyuan Technology Co.Ltd.,Beijing 100086,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州市水利发展规划研究中心,浙江杭州310000 [2]浙江省钱塘江流域中心,浙江杭州310020 [3]云粒智慧科技有限公司,北京100037 [4]北京合源科技有限公司,北京100086

出　　处：《海河水利》2025年第4期66-73,80,共9页Haihe Water Resources

基　　金：浙江省水利科技计划项目(RA2204)。

摘　　要：为解决分水江流域水库群存在联合调度协调性不足、与下游富春江水库错峰调度问题,以英公水库、华光潭水库、青山殿水库、分水江水库4座大中型水库为预报调度目标,建立基于水库群的洪水预报模型与多目标优化调度模型,开展防洪调度、兴利调度、规则调度等不同工况下的调度方案预演,为流域防洪调度提供理论依据。以“20190713”大暴雨进行历史复盘,结果显示各水库预报洪峰流量误差、洪量误差合理,平均确定性系数为0.93,拟合效果较好。结合下游富春江水库错峰调度制定目标函数,以NSGA-Ⅱ算法求解多目标优化调度模型,结果显示全局优化调度相较于历史调度,水库群平均削峰率由58.91%提升至61.08%,下游分水江站峰现时间提前4 h,能够有效实现错峰调度,水库群联合预报调度可为今后流域防洪提供科学预案。To address the lack of coordination in joint operation among reservoirs in the Fen River Basin and the peakshifting scheduling issues with the downstream Fuchunjiang Reservoir,a flood forecasting model and multi-objective optimization scheduling model based on a group of four medium-and large-sized reservoirs—Yinggong Reservoir,Huaguangtan Reservoir,Qingshandian Reservoir,and Fen River Reservoir—were established.Simulation scenarios for flood control scheduling,benefit-oriented scheduling,and rule-based scheduling were conducted to provide theoretical support for basin flood control operations.A historical review of the"20190713"heavy rainstorm event showed that the forecasted peak flow and flood volume errors for each reservoir were reasonable,with an average deterministic coefficient of 0.93,indicating good fitting performance.By incorporating downstream Fuchunjiang Reservoir′s peak-shifting scheduling into the objective function and solving the multi-objective optimization model using the NSGA-II algorithm,results demonstrated that,compared with historical operations,the global optimization scheduling increased the average peak reduction rate of the reservoir group from 58.91%to 61.08%,and advanced the peak occurrence time at the downstream Fen River station by 4 hours.This effectively achieved peak-shifting scheduling.Joint forecasting and scheduling of the reservoir group can provide scientific contingency plans for future basin flood control.

关 键 词：分水江流域 洪水预报 水库群联合调度 NSGA-Ⅱ算法 错峰调度 

分 类 号：TV697.12[水利工程—水利水电工程]