基于非对称Copula函数降水径流丰枯遭遇分析  

Research on Wetness-dryness Encountering of Rainfall-runoff Based on Asymmetric Copula Function

作　　者：刘一休[1] 王静文 孙仁豪 LIU Yi-xiu;WANG Jing-wen;SUN Ren-hao(China Railway Fourth Survey and Design Institute Group Co.,LTD.,Wuhan 430063,China;College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁第四勘察设计院集团有限公司,湖北武汉430063 [2]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2025年第4期12-16,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52279013);湖南省重大水利科技项目(XSKJ2021000-04)。

摘　　要：降水径流丰枯遭遇分析为水资源合理配置的基础。鉴于Copula函数能有效刻画水文变量间的相关关系,采用非对称Copula函数建立山东省聊城市降水和黄河高村站径流联合分布模型,采用PSO算法求解Copula函数的参数及权重系数,利用最优Copula函数分析降水径流丰枯遭遇。结果表明,以双Frank Copula组成Ⅱ型非对称Copula函数的OLS值、AIC值分别为0.014、-560.995,拟合效果最好;聊城市降水和黄河径流丰枯不同频的概率较大,有较好的水资源互补性;降水径流丰枯同频发生时,同丰同平的概率相对较大,较大量级降水径流有可能遭遇,需加强城市的防洪排涝体系建设。研究成果可为区域水资源优化配置和开展防洪排涝工程建设提供依据。The occurrence characteristics of rainfall-runoff are the basis of rational allocation of water resources.Copula function can effectively describe the correlation between hydrologic variables.The joint distribution model for rainfall in Liaocheng of Shandong Province and runoff in Gaocun station of the Yellow River are established by using asymmetric Copula function.The parameters and weight coefficients of Copula function are solved by PSO algorithm.The rainfallrunoff occurrence is analyzed by the optimal Copula function.The results show that the OLS value and AIC value of the type-Ⅱasymmetric Copula function composed of double Frank Copula are 0.014 and-560.995,and the fitting effect is the best.The probability of rainfall in Liaocheng and the Yellow River runoff with different frequency is large,and there is a good water resource complementarity.When the frequency of precipitation and runoff is the same,the probability of rainfall-runoff being the same wet and normal level is relatively higher.Large magnitude rainfall and runoff is likely to encounter.It is necessary to strengthen the construction of urban flood control and drainage system.The research results can provide a basis for regional water resources optimization allocation and construction of flood control and drainage projects.

关 键 词：丰枯遭遇 非对称Copula函数 黄河 聊城市 概率分析 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]