清河干流与碾盘河洪水遭遇规律分析  

Analysis of Flood Encounter Law Between Qinghe River and Nianpan River

作　　者：王大双 WANG Da-shuang(Liaoning Water Conservancy and Hydropower Survey and Design Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shenyang 110006,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省水利水电勘测设计研究院有限责任公司,辽宁沈阳110006

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2025年第4期22-25,共4页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：干支流洪水叠加加剧了下游河道的防洪形势,分析洪水遭遇情况有利于加强洪水管理,优化水库洪水调度,保障下游防洪安全。目前,清河流域研究洪水遭遇问题所采用的分析方法,对稀遇洪水遭遇风险的定量估算具有局限性,缺乏对清河流域洪水规律更全面的认识。对此,采用统计分析和基于Copula函数定量分析的方法对清河干流与碾盘河洪水组成和遭遇情况进行分析。结果表明,清河与碾盘河年最大洪水遭遇概率较高,主要集中在7、8月份,且两河发生洪水量级具有正相关;两河发生年最大24 h洪水过程遭遇概率较年最大洪峰和3 d洪水过程遭遇概率更高,但两河同时发生大量级洪水的可能性极低,两河同时发生100年一遇年最大洪峰和年最大24 h、3 d洪水过程的遭遇概率分别为0.222%、0.255%、0.085%。The flood superposition of the main stream and tributaries aggravates the flood control situation of the downstream river channel.Analyzing the flood encounter situation is conducive to strengthening flood management,optimizing reservoir flood dispatching,and ensuring downstream flood control safety.At present,the study of flood encounter problems in the Qinghe River Basin is limited to statistical analysis and lacks a more comprehensive understanding.In this paper,statistical analysis and quantitative analysis based on Copula function were used to analyze the flood composition and encounter situation of Qinghe River and Nianpan River.The results show that the annual maximum flood encounter probability of Qinghe River and Nianpan River is higher,mainly concentrated in July and August,and the flood magnitude of the two rivers is positively correlated.The probability of encountering the annual maximum 24-hour flood process in the two rivers is higher than that of the annual maximum flood peak and the three-day flood process,but the possibility of simultaneous occurrence of large-scale floods in the two rivers is extremely low.The probability of encountering the 100-year maximum flood peak and the annual maximum 24-hour and three-day flood processes in the two rivers at the same time is only 0.222%,0.255%,0.085%.

关 键 词：洪水遭遇 分析 COPULA函数 清河干流 碾盘河 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]