黄淮海平原降雨极值特征及致洪危险性分析  

Characterization of Rainfall Extremes and Analysis of Flooding Risk in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

作　　者：袁亚玲 王文鹏[1,2] 韩蕊 宋子妍 YUAN Ya-ling;WANG Wen-peng;HAN Rui;SONG Zi-yan(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Key Laboratory of Water Big Data Technology of Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]水利部水利大数据重点实验室,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2025年第4期30-34,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3006501);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022022)。

摘　　要：近年来黄淮海平原多地发生超历史极值的暴雨,引发洪涝灾害造成了巨大损失。为探明降雨极值时空分布规律,依据1960~2022年降雨极值指数系列,分析了降雨极值的空间分布格局及其演变,探究了降雨极值的概率特征及致洪危险性。结果表明,黄淮海平原降雨极值平均态的空间格局稳定,呈南高北低分布,高值区位于淮河中上游右岸山区;降雨极值稀遇频率端的空间差异明显,按百年一遇设计值统计,各极值指数的高值区均位于淮河上游,年最大5 d降雨的高值区分布在淮河中游及海河流域子牙河、漳卫河;综合不同频率段降雨极值的频次和强度特征,识别淮河上游、海河流域子牙河北部、大清河及永定河沿太行山一带为暴雨致洪的高危险区,可据此有侧重地防范暴雨洪水的易发区域。In recent years,heavy rainfall exceeding the historical extreme value has occurred in many places in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,triggering floods and causing great losses.To explore the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of rainfall extremes,based on the rainfall extreme value index series from 1960 to 2022,the spatial distribution pattern of rainfall extreme value and its evolution were analyzed.And then the probability characteristics of rainfall extreme value and flood risk were investigated.The results show that the spatial pattern of the rainfall extreme value mean state in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is stable,showing high in the south and low in the north,and the high value area is located in the mountainous area on the right bank of the middle and upper reaches of the Huaihe River;There is a significant spatial difference in the frequency end of the rainfall extreme value;According to the design value of one in a hundred years,the high value areas of the various extreme value indices are all located in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River;The high value areas of the maximum annual 5-day rainfall are located in the middle reaches of the Huaihe River,and in Ziya and Zhangwei rivers of the Haihe River Basin;Combining the frequency and intensity characteristics of rainfall extremes in different frequency bands,the upper reaches of the Huai River,the northern part of the Ziya River in the Haihe River Basin,the Daqing River,and the Yongding River along the Taihang Mountains are identified as high-risk zones for flooding caused by torrential rains,and the flood-prone areas of torrential rains can be prevented with emphasis accordingly.

关 键 词：黄淮海平原 降雨极值 概率特征 致灾危险性 

分 类 号：TV122.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV125