南昌市降水结构时空特征及其与大尺度气候的关联机制  

Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Precipitation Structure in Nanchang City and Its Correlation with Large-scale Climate Indices

作　　者：刘卫林[1] 胡林浩 张景嵘 郭强 LIU Wei-lin;HU Lin-hao;ZHANG Jing-rong;GUO Qiang(Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources Allocation and Effcient Utilization,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330099,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌工程学院水资源调配与高效利用江西省重点实验室,江西南昌330099

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2025年第4期40-44,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52069015);江西省优势科技创新团队建设计划项目(20171BCB24012);江西省高层次高技能领军人才培养工程项目。

摘　　要：为揭示南昌市降水结构时空特征及其与大尺度气候的关联机制,基于南昌市1965~2017年13个降水站点的逐日降水数据,采用线性趋势、滑动t检验、Morlet小波分析、小波相干、反距离插值法对南昌市各级别降水指标进行了时空特征分析,探讨了其与全球大尺度气候指标的相关性。结果表明,南昌市西北、东南地区各等级降水量、降水日数高于其余地区;暴雨、总降水雨量呈增加趋势,中雨呈减少趋势;暴雨雨强呈增加趋势;小雨、中雨降水量与降水日数存在28年周期,大雨、暴雨降水量与降水日数存在18年周期;各等级降水雨强均有明显的28年周期长度;南昌市降水与北大西洋涛动(NAO)、厄尔尼诺暖流(Nino3.4)、南方涛动指数(SOI)、副热带高压脊线及夏季季风指数(SASMI)均存在显著线性关系,其中SOI、Nino3.4及副高脊线在2000年前后对于暴雨等级降水均表现出时滞相干性。研究结果有助于南昌市防汛抗旱,并为适应大尺度气候变化的水资源管理提供了理论依据。To investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation structure in Nanchang and its association with large-scale climate,based on the daily precipitation data from 13 precipitation stations in Nanchang during 1965-2017,the linear trend,sliding t-test,Morlet wavelet analysis,wavelet coherence and inverse distance interpolation were used to analyze the temporal-spatial characteristics of precipitation indexes in Nanchang City were analyzed.The correlation between various precipitation indicators and large-scale climate indices were explored.The results indicate that the precipitation and number of precipitation days at various levels in the northwest and southeast regions of Nanchang City were higher than those in other areas.There was an increasing trend in heavy rainfall and total precipitation,while moderate rainfall showed a decreasing trend,and heavy rainfall intensity exhibited an increasing trend.Additionally,there were 28-year cycles in the precipitation amount and number of precipitation days for light and moderate rainfall,and 18-year cycles for heavy and extreme rainfall.The precipitation intensity at each level exhibited significant 28-year cycle.There was a significant linear relationship between precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),El Nino Warm Current(Nino3.4),Southern Oscillation Index(SOI),subtropical high ridge line and summer monsoon index(SASMI),among which SOI,Nino3.4 and subtropical high ridge line showed time lag coherence with heavy rainfall around 2000.The research results are helpful for flood control and drought relief in Nanchang City,and provide theoretical basis for water resources management to adapt to large-scale climate change.

关 键 词：南昌市 不同量级降水 时空变化 大尺度气候特征指标 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]