近61年郑州市极端降水事件时空变化特征分析  

Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Events in Zhengzhou City over the Past 61 Years

作　　者：鞠俊彦 刘俊国 张晓雷 户东东 李正阳 JU Jun-yan;LIU Jun-guo;ZHANG Xiao-lei;HU Dong-dong;LI Zheng-yang(School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Henan Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydrosphere and Watershed Water Security,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学水利学院,河南郑州450046 [2]河南省水圈与流域水安全重点实验室,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2025年第4期45-49,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3011400)。

摘　　要：基于郑州市7个地面气象观测站1961~2021年逐日降水数据,利用极点对称模态分解(ESMD)方法分析郑州市多年降水的时变特征,使用RClimDex模型计算郑州市近61年的极端降水指数,采用变异范围法(RVA)对极端降水指数的变化程度进行综合定量评价,并通过复Morlet小波变换方法相互验证,采用反距离加权解释降水指标的空间变化特征。结果表明,郑州市的8项极端降水指数在近61年来有7项呈小幅上升趋势,持续干燥指数呈小幅下降趋势,其中最大5 d降水量的增幅最大,为4.16 mm/10a;郑州市极端降水指数大部分呈低度改变,持续干燥指数、极端降水量和最大1 d降水量呈中度改变;在空间分布上,持续干燥指数呈现由北向南递减的趋势,其他极端降水指数基本呈现北部低南部高的空间分布格局。研究结果不仅阐明了郑州市近61年极端降水指数在时间和空间的变化特征,还可为郑州市防灾减灾工作提供科学参考。Based on the daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2021 collected at seven ground meteorological observation stations in Zhengzhou City,this study analyzed the temporal variation characteristics of precipitation over the years using the Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition(ESMD)method.The RClimDex model was employed to calculate the extreme precipitation indices for the past 61 years in Zhengzhou City.The Range of Variability Approach(RVA)was used to comprehensively and quantitatively evaluate the degree of change in the extreme precipitation indices.Additionally,the complex Morlet wavelet transform method was applied for mutual validation,and the inverse distance weighting method was used to explain the spatial variation characteristics of the precipitation indices.The results indicate that in the eight extreme precipitation indices in Zhengzhou City over the past 61 years,seven showed a slight increasing trend,while the continuous dry index showed a slight decreasing trend.Among these,the maximum 5-day precipitation exhibited the largest increase,at 4.16 mm/10a.Most of the extreme precipitation indices in Zhengzhou City showed low levels of change,while the continuous dry index,extreme precipitation amount,and maximum 1-day precipitation showed moderate levels of change.Spatially,the continuous dry index displayed a decreasing trend from north to south,whereas the other extreme precipitation indices generally showed a spatial distribution pattern of lower values in the north and higher values in the south.The findings not only elucidate the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme precipitation indices in Zhengzhou City over the past 61 years but also provide a scientific reference for disaster prevention and mitigation efforts in Zhengzhou City.

关 键 词：极端降水 RClimDex模型 极端降水指数 时空变化 郑州市 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]