福建省降雨频率曲线拟合优化研究  

vResearch on Optimization of Precipitation Frequency Curve Fitting in Fujian Province

作　　者：郑君亮 刘隽 邹燕[2] 冯真祯 官晓东 ZHENG Jun-liang;LIU Jun;ZOU Yan;FENG Zhen-zhen;GUAN Xiao-dong(Meteorological Disasters Defending Technique Centre of Fujian Province,Fuzhou 350028,China;Fujian Climate Center,Fuzhou 350028,China;Sanming Meteorological Bureau,Sanming 365001,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省气象灾害防御技术中心,福建福州350028 [2]福建省气候中心,福建福州350028 [3]三明市气象局,福建三明365001

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2025年第4期50-53,39,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金项目(2022J01444);福建省气象局青年科技专项(2023Q08)。

摘　　要：不同重现期降雨量的准确计算可以为暴雨公式计算、暴雨防灾减灾、城市排水管网设计等提供重要的数据支撑,其计算方法是通过拟合降雨频率曲线后推求不同重现期降雨。为了更好地获得不同重现期降雨,对福建省降雨频率曲线拟合开展研究。首先,采用两种目标函数对降雨频率曲线进行拟合,发现以误差平方和为目标函数的结果倾向于靠近极端值,以相对误差平方和为目标函数的结果对总体的拟合效果更好,且后者对重现期2~20年区间的精度检验结果更优;然后,选取5种常用的分布函数对福建省66个气象站的降雨频率曲线进行拟合,发现以广义极值分布为最优分布的站点占比最大,皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布次之;最后,为了解决不同历时曲线相交的问题,提出了基于约束条件的拟合方法,采用序列二次规划算法在约束条件下对多历时降雨频率曲线进行拟合,提高拟合的合理性,从而得到更准确的不同重现期降雨值,以更好地为相关研究提供数据支撑。The accurate calculation of precipitation value in different return periods can provide an important reference for rainstorm formula calculation,rainstorm disaster prevention and urban drainage pipe network design.The calculation method is to fit the frequency curve of precipitation and then get the precipitation values in different return periods from the frequency curve.In order to obtain rainfall at different return periods,this article conducts research on the fitting of precipitation frequency curves in Fujian Province.Firstly,two objective functions,the sum of squared errors and the sum of squared relative errors,are used to fit the rainfall frequency curve.The results indicate that the former results tends to approach extreme values,the latter results tends to have an overall fitting effect,and the latter has a better accuracy test result for the return period of 2-20 years.The five commonly used distribution functions are selected to fit the precipitation frequency curves of 66 meteorological stations in Fujian Province.The results show that the proportion of stations with the generalized extreme value distribution as the optimal distribution is the highest,followed by the Pearson III distribution.Finally,in order to solve the intersecting problem of different duration curves,this paper proposes a precipitation frequency curve fitting method based on constraint conditions,which applies sequential quadratic programming algorithm to fit precipitation frequency curves under constraint conditions,so as to improve the fitting rationality,and it obtains rainfall values for different recurrence periods more accurately,which can provide better data support for related work.

关 键 词：极端降雨 重现期 频率曲线 序列二次规划算法 多历时 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P333[天文地球—水文科学]