多方法协同的水资源承载力影响因素辨识  

Identification of Factors Influencing Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Multi-method Collaboration

作　　者：李嘉辉 李磊[2] 吴天航 许生 刘俊[1] LI Jia-hui;LI Lei;WU Tian-hang;XU Sheng;LIU Jun(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Suqian Water Conservancy Bureau,Suqian 223800,China;Suqian Water Survey and Design Research Co.,Ltd.,Suqian 223800,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]宿迁市水利局,江苏宿迁223800 [3]宿迁市水务勘测设计研究有限公司,江苏宿迁223800

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2025年第4期60-64,共5页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：滨州市地处黄河流域下游,经济社会发展高度依赖黄河水,人均水资源量低。为促进水资源高效利用和可持续发展,采用AHP-熵权-TOPSIS模型评价了滨州市2013~2022年水资源承载力,根据评价结果,基于斯皮尔曼相关系数、障碍度模型识别并诊断水资源承载力的主要驱动因子和主要障碍因子,辨识水资源承载力关键影响因素,并提出相应对策。结果表明,滨州市水资源承载力关键影响因素分别为产水模数、地下水供水占比、跨流域调水占比、人口自然增长率、人均GDP、GDP年增长率、第三产业占比、万元GDP用水量、生态环境用水量占比、人均生态环境用水量10项指标;在水资源方面,优化水源结构,在加强本地地表水利用的同时,充分开展非常规水利用工作,同时做好地下水保护与管理;在社会及经济方面,转变滨州市经济发展方式,促进产业结构优化升级和区域协调发展,提升水资源利用效率;在生态环境方面,确定滨州市重点河流生态流量,保障河湖生态用水需求,合理增加生态环境用水量,改善河湖健康状况。Binzhou City’s economic and social development highly depends on the Yellow River water,while its per capita water resources are very limited.To achieve efficient utilization and sustainable development of water resources,the study utilized the AHP-Entropy Weight-TOPSIS model to assess the water resource carrying capacity of Binzhou City from 2013 to 2022.Based on the assessment results,through Spearman correlation analysis and obstacle degree model,the main driving factors and obstacles of water resource carrying capacity were identified and diagnosed,determining the key influencing factors and proposing corresponding countermeasures.The results show that the key factors influencing Binzhou City's water resource carrying capacity encompass water output modulus,groundwater supply ratio,inter-basin water transfer ratio,natural population growth rate,per capita GDP,GDP annual growth rate,the proportion of the tertiary industry,water usage per unit GDP,ecological environment water usage ratio,and per capita ecological environment water usage.In terms of water resources,the structure of water sources was optimized.While strengthening the use of local surface water,the use of unconventional water should be fully carried out.At the same time,groundwater protection and management should be done well.For socio-economic aspects,the economic development model should be transformed to upgrade the industrial structure,promote balanced development among regions,and improve the efficiency of water use.Regarding ecological environments,ecological flow standards for the key rivers were determined to ensure the ecological water demand of rivers and lakes,rationally increase the water consumption of ecological environment,and improve the health of rivers and lakes.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 TOPSIS法 障碍度 驱动因子 斯皮尔曼相关系数 滨州市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]