黑河流域讨赖河段水质参数及强相关因子特征研究  

Research on Water Quality Parameters and Strong Correlation Factors in Taolai River Section of Heihe River Basin

作　　者：许新华 XU Xin-hua(Jiuquan Hydrological and Water Resources Survey Center in Gansu Province,Jiuquan 735000,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省酒泉水文水资源勘测中心,甘肃酒泉735000

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2025年第4期74-79,共6页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：甘肃省自然科学基金项目(21JR7RA227)。

摘　　要：黑河为西北地区重要的内陆河,其年际复杂的水质特征影响水资源高效利用。为确定黑河流域讨赖河段水质参数与强相关因子的关系,基于黑河流域讨赖河段2016~2021年逐月水质监测数据,采用相关性分析研究该河段水质参数强相关因子的年际变化规律,并基于强相关因子,利用广义回归神经网络模型(GRNN)对水质参数及其强相关因子进行预测分析,探索黑河流域讨赖河段水质参数及强相关因子特征。结果表明,气温与水温、总碱度与重碳酸盐、电导率与矿化度等为讨赖河段特征鲜明的水质参数及其强相关特征因子;水质参数中电导率、重碳酸盐、总碱度预测模型R2>0.85,即少样本情况下,通过强相关因子反演对应水质参数效果较好。研究结果阐明了讨赖河流域水质参数时间变化主要特征及影响机理,为流域水环境精细化管理与精准保护提供了科学依据。The Heihe River is an important inland river in the northwest region,and its intricate annual water quality features affect the efficient utilization of water resources.This study aimed to investigate the relationships between water quality parameters and their highly correlated determinants in the Taolai River reach of the Heihe River Basin.Based on the monthly water quality monitoring data from 2016 to 2021,correlation analysis was used to study the interannual variation of the strong correlation factors of water quality parameters in this reach.Based on strong correlation factors,the generalized regression neural network(GRNN)model was used to predict the water quality parameters and their strong correlation factors.The water quality parameters and the characteristics of strong correlation factors in the Taolai River reach of Heihe River Basin was explored.The results show that the temperature,water temperature,total alkalinity,heavy carbonate,conductivity,and degree of mineralization are the water quality parameters with distinct characteristics in the Taolai River Reach as well as strongly correlated factors.The prediction models of water quality parameters such as conductivity,heavy carbonate,and total alkalinity have an R2 greater than 0.85,meaning that in the case of few samples,the effect of inverting corresponding water quality parameters through strong correlation factors is better.The research results elucidate the main characteristics and influencing mechanism of time variation of water quality parameters in Taolai River Basin,which provides scientific basis for the refined management and precise protection of the water environment in the basin.

关 键 词：黑河流域 水质参数 强相关因子 广义回归神经网络模型 预测模型 

分 类 号：X522[环境科学与工程—环境工程]