滇池水质持续性改善与牛栏江补水依存关系研究  

Study on the Relationship Between Continuous Improvement of Water Quality in Dianchi Lake and Water Replenishment of Niulan River

作　　者：张天力 马巍[2] 杨凡 陈晶 ZHANG Tian-li;MA Wei;YANG Fan;CHEN Jing(Yunnan Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Survey Design and Research Institute,Kunming 650021,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省水利水电勘测设计研究院,云南昆明650021 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2025年第4期80-83,59,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金NSFC-云南联合基金项目(U2202207)。

摘　　要：近年来化学需氧量(COD)指标作为滇池水质达标考核的关键制约因子,常年处于严重超标状态且持续走高,直到2014年牛栏江—滇池补水工程通水后才逐步降低,且受牛栏江补水量变化影响明显。为厘清牛栏江补水对滇池水质改善效果的影响以及水质持续性改善与补水量间的依存关系,以COD指标为代表,利用Mann-Kendall突变检验法分析滇池2010~2020年水质的变化情况,研究维持外海水质整体稳定的年最小补水量需求,并利用灰色模型对牛栏江补水与流域来水情景下的水质变化进行快速预测。结果表明,牛栏江补水对滇池水质改善效果明显,但当补水入湖量降低到2.21×10^(8)m^(3)/a以下将不能有效维持湖泊水质持续性改善状态;滇池水质变化明显滞后于牛栏江补水的时间节点,滞后时长约为1年;灰色模型可指导工程补水入外海后的湖泊水质预测。In recent years,chemical oxygen demand(COD)as a key constraint factor for the assessment of water quality in Dianchi Lake,has been seriously exceeding the standard all the year round and has continued to rise.It did not gradually decrease until the water supply project of Niulan River-Dianchi Lake in 2014,and was significantly affected by the change of water supply in Niulan River.In order to clarify the impact of the Niulan River water supply on the improvement of water quality in Dianchi Lake and the dependency relationship between the continuous improvement of water quality and the amount of water supply,this study took the COD index as the representative,and used the Mann-Kendall mutation test to analyze the changes of water quality in Dianchi Lake during 2010-2020,and studied the minimum annual water supply demand that maintains the overall stability of the offshore water quality.The grey model was used to quickly predict the water quality changes under the scenarios of Niulan River water supply and basin inflow.The results show that the effect of Niulan River water supply on the improvement of water quality in Dianchi Lake is obvious,but when the amount of water supply inflow the lake is reduced to a certain extent(<2.21×10^(8)m^(3)/a),it will not be able to effectively maintain the continuous improvement of lake water quality.The change of water quality in Dianchi Lake obviously lags behind the time node of water supplement of Niulan River,and the lag time is about 1 year.The grey model can guide the prediction of lake water quality after a large amount of water is replenished into open sea.

关 键 词：Mann-Kendall突变检验 灰色模型 最小补水量需求 牛栏江—滇池补水工程 滇池 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]