“双碳”目标背景下制造业碳排放与宏观经济的关联效应分析  

Analysis of the Correlation Effect Between Carbon Emissions in Manufacturing Industry and Macroeconomy in the Context of"Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality"Goals

作　　者：李莹 申创[2] Li Ying;Shen Chuang

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学紫金学院商学院,江苏南京210046 [2]南京财经大学金融学院,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《西南金融》2025年第3期31-47,共17页Southwest Finance

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“制造业碳达峰碳中和的实现机制与政策保障”(22AZD095);2022年江苏高校“青蓝工程”培养项目;江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究项目(2024SJYB0480)。

摘　　要：在我国大力推进“双碳”目标实现的时代背景下,本文对制造业碳排放与各类宏观经济变量之间的关联效应展开深度探究。从宏观层面剖析,制造业碳排放与经济增长、物价水平、财政收入及国际贸易状况之间关联密切,而与居民消费、创业水平的关联程度则相对较低。具体而言,经济增长与国际贸易对制造业碳排放有着显著的正向推动作用,在制造业碳排放增长的进程中贡献度较高;与此同时,制造业碳排放对经济增长、物价水平及财政收入均起到显著的正向驱动作用。从区域层面来看,东部地区制造业碳排放与宏观经济变量之间的联系相比其他地区更为薄弱;中部地区经济变量对制造业碳排放的影响相对有限,而制造业碳排放对各经济变量产生较为显著的影响;西部地区的制造业碳排放呈现出强烈的自相关特征,且其对经济增长与创业活动有着极为明显的带动作用。基于上述研究结论,本文综合考量宏观情势与区域特点,提出促进地方经济低碳发展、引导居民低碳消费、推动技术创新等一系列针对性的对策建议,旨在为我国制造业低碳转型与可持续发展提供有力支撑。In the context of China's efforts to promote the realization of the"carbon peaking and carbon neu⁃trality"goals,this paper conducts an in-depth investigation into the correlation effect between carbon emissions in manufacturing industry and various macroeconomic variables.Analyzed from the macro level,carbon emissions in manufacturing industry are closely associated with economic growth,price level,financial income and internation⁃al trade,while the degree of association with residents'consumption and entrepreneurship level is relatively low.Specifically,economic growth and international trade have a significant positive impact on manufacturing carbon emissions,and contribute more to the process of manufacturing carbon emissions growth.At the same time,manu⁃facturing carbon emissions have a significant positive impact on economic growth,price levels and fiscal revenues.At the regional level,the link between manufacturing carbon emissions and macroeconomic variables is weaker in the eastern region than in other regions.The impact of economic variables on manufacturing carbon emissions in the central region is relatively limited,while manufacturing carbon emissions have a more significant impact on various economic variables.Manufacturing carbon emissions in the western region show strong autocorrelation characteristics,and have a very obvious driving effect on economic growth and entrepreneurial activities.Based on the above conclusions,this paper takes into account the macro situation and regional characteristics,and puts for⁃ward a series of targeted countermeasures to promote the low-carbon development of the local economy,guide the residents to low-carbon consumption,and promote technological innovation,aiming to provide strong support for the low-carbon transformation and sustainable development of China's manufacturing industry.

关 键 词：碳达峰 碳中和 碳排放 制造业 宏观经济 经济增长 低碳转型 可持续发展 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学] F062.9