运行期土石坝渗流量与库水位变化过程的关系研究  

Relationship between seepage flow and reservoir water level changes during the operational period of earth-rock dams

作　　者：卢渊博 贾万波 王鑫科 LU Yuanbo;JIA Wanbo;WANG Xinke(Yellow River Water Resources and Hydropower Development Group Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]黄河水利水电开发集团有限公司,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《水利建设与管理》2025年第4期5-11,共7页Water Conservancy Construction and Management

摘　　要：渗流量监测是土石坝安全监测中的重要内容,其变化规律与大坝安全运行密切相关。本文基于小浪底水利枢纽的20年实测资料,对渗流量数据进行特征值统计分析及周期性分析,揭示了渗流量与库水位的变化规律,同时采用统计回归模型对渗流量进行定量分析。结果发现:渗流量与库水位保持相同的变化规律,不同的是,渗流量整体趋于减小,大坝渗流稳定运行正常;选用主成分回归模型可获得较为理想的效果,解决了多元线性回归和逐步回归分析中多重共线导致模型失真的问题,提高了统计模型的实效,模型分析表明时效分量随着时间逐渐降低。本文采用的周期性研究方法和回归模型丰富了渗流数据分析方法,同时也为该水库安全评价提供技术支撑。Seepage flow monitoring is an essential part of the safety monitoring of earth-rock dams,and its variation is closely related to the safe operation of the dam.Based on 20 years of measured data from the Xiaolangdi Water Conservancy Project,this paper conducts characteristic value statistical analysis and periodic analysis of the seepage flow data to reveal the variation patterns between seepage flow and reservoir water level.A statistical regression model is also used for quantitative analysis of the seepage flow.The results show that seepage flow follows the same variation pattern as the reservoir water level.However,seepage flow generally decreases,indicating stable and normal dam seepage operation.The principal component regression model yields better results,addressing the issue of multicollinearity causing model distortion in multiple linear regression and stepwise regression analyses.This improves the effectiveness of the statistical model.Model analysis shows that the time-dependent component decreases gradually over time.The periodic study method and regression model used in this paper enrich the seepage data analysis methods and provide technical support for the safety evaluation of the reservoir.

关 键 词：土石坝 周期性分析 渗流量变化 主成分回归模型 

分 类 号：TV52[水利工程—水利水电工程]