1961-2023年佛冈县“龙舟水”的时空特征  

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of“Dragon Boat Water”in Fogang County from 1961 to 2023

作　　者：吴志纯 陈焯坚 骆宇豪 张金宇 冯梓雅 WU Zhichun;CHEN Zhuojian;LUO Yuhao;ZHANG Jinyu;FENG Ziya(Fogang Meteorological Service,Fogang 511600;Qingyuan Meteorological Service,Qingyuan 511510)

机构地区：[1]佛冈县气象局,广东佛冈511600 [2]清远市气象局,广东清远511510

出　　处：《广东气象》2025年第2期58-62,共5页Guangdong Meteorology

摘　　要：为提高佛冈“龙舟水”预报预警的准确率,为防灾减灾提供参考。利用佛冈县1961—2023年国家基本观测站和2014—2023年10个区域气象自动站“龙舟水”期间的逐日降水量资料,采用线性回归、多项性拟合、Mann-Kendall突变分析、Morlet小波分析和克里金插值等方法,对佛冈县“龙舟水”的时空变化特征进行分析,结果表明:近63年佛冈县“龙舟水”降水量、降水日数和降水强度总体呈上升趋势,但不显著,在2010年代中后期之后均处于偏多(强)期,其中有13年出现重的“龙舟水”过程。佛冈县“龙舟水”降水量、降水日数和降水强度并未发生突变。降水量和降水日数主要周期为准20年,降水强度的主要周期为准28年。佛冈县“龙舟水”平均降水量呈北多南少、西多东少的空间分布特征;中部降水量为稳定偏多,而南北部的“龙舟水”降水量年变化幅度大,预报难度也大。To improve the accuracy of forecasting and early warning of“Dragon Boat Water”in Fogang and to provide references for disaster prevention and mitigation,this study analyzed the daily precipitation data during the“Dragon Boat Water”period from a national basic observation station in Fogang County from 1961 to 2023 and from 10 regional automatic weather stations from 2014 to 2023.Methods such as linear regression,polynomial fitting,Mann-Kendall mutation analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis,and Kriging interpolation were employed to examine the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of“Dragon Boat Water”in Fogang County.The results are shown as follows.Over the past 63 years,the precipitation amount,precipitation days,and precipitation intensity of“Dragon Boat Water”in Fogang County have generally shown an upward trend,though not significantly.Since the mid-to-late 2010s,these metrics have been in a relatively high(strong)phase,with 13 years experiencing severe“Dragon Boat Water”events.No abrupt changes were detected in the precipitation amount,precipitation days,or precipitation intensity of“Dragon Boat Water”in Fogang County.The main cycle for precipitation amount and precipitation days is approximately 20 years,while the main cycle for precipitation intensity is approximately 28 years.The average precipitation of“Dragon Boat Water”in Fogang County exhibits a spatial distribution characteristic of being higher in the north and west and lower in the south and east.The central region has a stable and relatively high precipitation amount,while the annual variation in precipitation amount is significant in the northern and southern regions,making forecasting more challenging.

关 键 词：气候学 “龙舟水” 周期 时空特征 佛冈县 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]