中国29个中心城市碳达峰转型状态评估研究  

Study on the Assessment of Carbon Peaking Transformation Status of 29 Central Cities in China

作　　者：王军锋[1] 吴艺涵 WANG Junfeng;WU Yihan(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nankai University,Tianjin 300350,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300350

出　　处：《生态经济》2025年第5期13-20,30,共9页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“零碳化城市群电力系统气候环境效应与空间协同治理政策研究”(72174097);国网天津市电力公司科技项目“基于电力大数据的碳排放监测数据管理标准与减污降碳协同度评价体系研究”(电科-研发2023-46)。

摘　　要：中心城市作为中国经济和人口聚集载体,是国家碳达峰目标实现的核心关注区域。科学评估我国中心城市的碳达峰转型的基础以及潜在的挑战,对于当前积极稳妥地推进碳达峰碳中和工作非常重要。论文通过构建中心城市碳达峰转型状态的评估模型,选取了适用于评估状态的多维指标,基于2016—2020年的面板数据对中国中心城市碳达峰转型状态进行分析讨论。结果表明:(1)多数中心城市尚未进入碳排放达峰期和达峰后平稳下降期,南方地区中心城市目前经济发展的碳排放效率普遍高于北方城市;(2)中心城市能耗强度的下降速率均较快,这也直接带动了碳排放增量发展趋势的减缓,有利于碳达峰转型尽早实现;(3)中心城市经济和人口与碳排放量的脱钩状态不稳定,实现稳定脱钩的发展状态还需要中长期发展转型策略的设计与实施。As the carrier of China’s economy and population,central cities are the core areas of concern for the realization of the national carbon peak goal.A scientific assessment of the basis and potential challenges of the carbon peaking transformation in China’s central cities is very important for the active and steady promotion of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.In this paper,the evaluation model of the carbon peaking transformation state of central cities was constructed,and the multi-dimensional indexes suitable for the evaluation state were selected.Based on the panel data from 2016 to 2020,the transformation status of carbon peaking in central cities in China was analyzed and discussed.The results show that:(1)Most of the central cities have not entered the peak period of carbon emissions and the steady decline period after the peak,and the carbon emission efficiency of the central cities in the southern region is generally higher than that of the northern cities;(2)The decline rate of energy intensity in central cities is fast,which also directly promotes the slowing down of the incremental development trend of carbon emissions,which is conducive to the realization of carbon peaking transformation as soon as possible;(3)The decoupling state of the central city’s economy and population from carbon emissions is unstable,and the design and implementation of medium and long-term development transformation strategies are needed to realize the stable decoupling development state.

关 键 词：碳达峰 碳达峰状态评估 指标体系 中心城市 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]