基于组合赋权—云模型的海绵城市韧性水平研究  

Urban Resilience Assessment of the Sponge City Based on Combination Weighting-Cloud Model

作　　者：何伟军[1] 曹东杰 袁亮[1] 孔阳[1] HE Weijun;CAO Dongjie;YUAN Liang;KONG Yang(College of Economics and Management,China Three Gorges University,Yichang Hubei 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学经济与管理学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《生态经济》2025年第5期81-89,126,共10页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“建设‘长江三峡生态经济走廊’研究”(2019ZDA089)。

摘　　要：在全球气候变化和快速城市化的背景下,增强城市韧性是实现城市可持续发展的必然要求。海绵城市作为一种新型的城市发展模式,探究其韧性发展水平对我国韧性城市建设具有重要意义。论文将韧性理念与海绵城市建设相结合,综合运用组合赋权、云模型等评估海绵城市建设试点2015—2022年城市韧性水平变化。结果表明:(1)试点城市的城市韧性指数均呈波动上升趋势,城市韧性水平持续提升但发展不均衡,个体差异较大,表现出明显的阶梯分布特征;(2)试点城市的城市韧性存在显著的空间差异性,城市韧性水平表现出“东部>中部>西部>东北”的特征,城市韧性增速表现出“西部>中部>东部>东北”的特征;(3)试点城市的整体韧性等级不断提升,总体由“低韧性”发展为“中韧性”,但仍处于较低等级。各子系统韧性等级也有不同程度的提升,生态韧性提升效果最好,经济韧性提升效果一般。论文不仅评估了我国海绵城市的城市韧性发展水平,而且提出了加强海绵城市韧性建设的对策建议。In the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization,enhancing urban resilience is an inevitable requirement for achieving sustainable urban development.As a new urban development mode,the sponge city has great significance for exploring its resilience development level in China’s resilience city construction.This paper combines the concept of resilience with the construction of sponge city,and comprehensively uses the Combination weighting and Cloud model to evaluate the change of urban resilience level of sponge city construction pilot from 2015 to 2022.The results show that:(1)The urban resilience index of the pilot cities shows a fluctuating upward trend,and the urban resilience level continues to improve but the development is uneven,with significant individual differences,showing a clear stepwise distribution characteristic;(2)There are significant spatial differences in the urban resilience level of the pilot cities,with the urban resilience level showing the characteristics of“eastern>central>western>northeastern”,and the urban resilience growth rate showing the characteristics of“western>central>eastern>northeastern”;(3)The overall urban resilience grade of sponge city construction pilot continues to improve,gradually evolving from“low resilience”to“medium resilience”,but the urban resilience is still at a low grade.The resilience grade of each subsystem also has different degrees of improvement,with the best improvement effect in ecological resilience and the general improvement effect in economic resilience.This paper not only assesses the urban resilience development level of China’s sponge city,but also proposes countermeasures and suggestions to strengthen the resilience construction of the sponge city.

关 键 词：海绵城市 城市韧性 组合赋权 云模型 可持续发展 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济] F062.2